Corresponding author:
Professor Nick Glozier
Faculty of Medicine and Health,
University of Sydney,
NSW 2050,
Australia
email: nick.glozier@sydney.edu.au
Draft: 02 December, 2020
Supplementary tables: 4
Supplementary figures: 3
keywords: Subjective wellbeing, household wealth, HILDA
Figure S1 legend: Differences in posterior evidence (WAIC) for a linear fit over a piecewise fit for satisfaction (blue) and happiness (red). The filled circle indicates the mean of the distribution and the horizontal bars represents the 95% credible interval. A difference greater than zero is support for the linear model and a difference below zero is support for the piecewise model.
Figure S2 legend: Posterior distribution of the change point parameter representing the location in household income ($) for each year. Horizontal bar represents the 95% credible interval.
We tested the relationship between wealth and each wellbeing variable (happiness and satisfaction) using cubic B-spline models. A cubic B-spline was the most complex model (more degrees of freedom), and included here because it has been recently used to describe the maximum point at which wellbeing no longer increases with wealth (i.e., “satiety”, Jebb et al., 2018). Following Jebb et al (2018), we restricted the cubic B-spline model to n = 4, 5 and 6 knots and display wealth on a log scale.
The cubic B-spline models failed to reveal a complete satiety point (horizontal inflection) in satisfaction before the highest decile in any year. Also note that despite using a log scale, we do not observe a clear, regular logarithmic function with either wellbeing measure. Other researchers have argued that wealth represents a quantitative dimension subject to Weber’s Law of perception (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). Under this view, similar proportional changes in income or wealth produce similar evaluations of satisfaction or happiness, rather than the absolute change. That is, a $100 increase in wealth will produce a greater impact on someone earning a minimum wage than someone earning many orders of magnitude of that amount. However while it is true that wealth clearly represents a quantitative dimension, the effects of wealth observed here represent cross-sectional differences in the population rather than changes experienced by an individual over time. It is not clear the extent to which Weber’s Law applies to cross-sectional or between-subject differences in quantitative dimensions such as wealth.
There were df = 59,876 total observations. 4000 samples (post-warmup) were drawn using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).
The Bayes R2 = 0.03964581 ±0.001497172 (0.03672371-0.04262236)
Coefficient definitions:
alpha is the log value of wealth (x) at the changepoint
b0 is the intercept denoting the expected value of wellbeing (y) at the changepoint
b1 is the linear slope before the changepoint
b2 is the linear slope after the changepoint
b3 is the coefficient of education (graduate)
b4 is the coefficient of age
b5 is the coefficient of age2
b6 is the coefficient of sex (male)
Parameter | Year | Estimate | Est.Error | l-95% CI | u-95% CI | Rhat | Bulk_ESS | Tail_ESS |
alpha | 2018 | -2.550 | 0.072 | -2.702 | -2.414 | 1.0 | 5285 | 4903 |
2017 | -2.658 | 0.081 | -2.818 | -2.518 | 1.0 | 4465 | 6452 | |
2016 | -2.739 | 0.074 | -2.868 | -2.592 | 1.0 | 5050 | 8132 | |
2015 | -2.672 | 0.130 | -2.929 | -2.459 | 1.0 | 2974 | 6083 | |
2014 | -2.859 | 0.114 | -3.033 | -2.578 | 1.0 | 3223 | 2934 | |
2013 | -2.702 | 0.082 | -2.866 | -2.549 | 1.0 | 5309 | 6893 | |
2012 | -2.762 | 0.065 | -2.881 | -2.618 | 1.0 | 5677 | 5541 | |
2011 | -2.935 | 0.065 | -3.061 | -2.816 | 1.0 | 5569 | 6696 | |
2010 | -3.003 | 0.133 | -3.244 | -2.694 | 1.0 | 3646 | 3220 | |
2009 | -2.681 | 0.125 | -2.935 | -2.455 | 1.0 | 3866 | 4806 | |
2008 | -2.828 | 0.229 | -3.036 | -2.256 | 1.0 | 492 | 900 | |
2007 | -3.000 | 0.059 | -3.115 | -2.881 | 1.0 | 6268 | 7044 | |
2006 | -2.957 | 0.092 | -3.114 | -2.758 | 1.0 | 5173 | 4889 | |
2005 | -2.855 | 0.092 | -3.011 | -2.653 | 1.0 | 4895 | 5760 | |
2004 | -2.886 | 0.132 | -3.113 | -2.568 | 1.0 | 3344 | 2973 | |
2003 | -2.480 | 0.152 | -2.909 | -2.237 | 1.0 | 3102 | 1813 | |
2002 | -3.071 | 0.111 | -3.240 | -2.798 | 1.0 | 4863 | 2996 | |
b0 | 2018 | 0.054 | 0.029 | -0.004 | 0.111 | 1.0 | 5454 | 6609 |
2017 | 0.026 | 0.029 | -0.029 | 0.083 | 1.0 | 4851 | 6830 | |
2016 | -0.006 | 0.026 | -0.055 | 0.047 | 1.0 | 5563 | 7560 | |
2015 | 0.022 | 0.042 | -0.059 | 0.097 | 1.0 | 3076 | 5692 | |
2014 | -0.033 | 0.033 | -0.088 | 0.044 | 1.0 | 3358 | 3149 | |
2013 | -0.023 | 0.027 | -0.076 | 0.031 | 1.0 | 5414 | 7121 | |
2012 | -0.015 | 0.025 | -0.063 | 0.038 | 1.0 | 6276 | 6145 | |
2011 | -0.045 | 0.024 | -0.092 | 0.003 | 1.0 | 5918 | 6610 | |
2010 | -0.069 | 0.034 | -0.132 | 0.004 | 1.0 | 4067 | 3840 | |
2009 | 0.009 | 0.042 | -0.071 | 0.093 | 1.0 | 4063 | 6287 | |
2008 | 0.009 | 0.071 | -0.068 | 0.197 | 1.0 | 474 | 863 | |
2007 | 0.004 | 0.024 | -0.043 | 0.051 | 1.0 | 6118 | 7074 | |
2006 | -0.002 | 0.032 | -0.061 | 0.065 | 1.0 | 5698 | 5918 | |
2005 | 0.032 | 0.034 | -0.030 | 0.103 | 1.0 | 4943 | 5417 | |
2004 | 0.017 | 0.046 | -0.060 | 0.125 | 1.0 | 3418 | 3122 | |
2003 | 0.171 | 0.062 | 0.019 | 0.285 | 1.0 | 3196 | 2006 | |
2002 | -0.004 | 0.030 | -0.056 | 0.061 | 1.0 | 5323 | 3825 | |
b1 | 2018 | 0.087 | 0.007 | 0.074 | 0.102 | 1.0 | 7843 | 6371 |
2017 | 0.099 | 0.010 | 0.082 | 0.121 | 1.0 | 5575 | 7150 | |
2016 | 0.100 | 0.010 | 0.082 | 0.121 | 1.0 | 6864 | 8801 | |
2015 | 0.095 | 0.014 | 0.075 | 0.127 | 1.0 | 3296 | 6224 | |
2014 | 0.110 | 0.016 | 0.078 | 0.140 | 1.0 | 3766 | 3456 | |
2013 | 0.091 | 0.010 | 0.073 | 0.112 | 1.0 | 6951 | 7408 | |
2012 | 0.106 | 0.010 | 0.087 | 0.124 | 1.0 | 7044 | 7992 | |
2011 | 0.135 | 0.013 | 0.111 | 0.163 | 1.0 | 6912 | 7902 | |
2010 | 0.124 | 0.022 | 0.083 | 0.172 | 1.0 | 4164 | 4209 | |
2009 | 0.095 | 0.013 | 0.074 | 0.123 | 1.0 | 4734 | 5944 | |
2008 | 0.115 | 0.022 | 0.067 | 0.148 | 1.0 | 488 | 827 | |
2007 | 0.143 | 0.015 | 0.116 | 0.173 | 1.0 | 7399 | 7887 | |
2006 | 0.125 | 0.015 | 0.096 | 0.156 | 1.0 | 6272 | 7347 | |
2005 | 0.115 | 0.013 | 0.090 | 0.140 | 1.0 | 6435 | 6909 | |
2004 | 0.111 | 0.015 | 0.083 | 0.141 | 1.0 | 4335 | 4925 | |
2003 | 0.078 | 0.009 | 0.064 | 0.100 | 1.0 | 4072 | 2216 | |
2002 | 0.109 | 0.016 | 0.077 | 0.141 | 1.0 | 5744 | 4414 | |
b2 | 2018 | 0.010 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.016 | 1.0 | 10148 | 8900 |
2017 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.013 | 1.0 | 8680 | 9355 | |
2016 | 0.011 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.016 | 1.0 | 10571 | 10209 | |
2015 | 0.012 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.020 | 1.0 | 4368 | 7387 | |
2014 | 0.016 | 0.003 | 0.009 | 0.022 | 1.0 | 5780 | 5649 | |
2013 | 0.010 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.016 | 1.0 | 10356 | 9483 | |
2012 | 0.014 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.020 | 1.0 | 11364 | 9038 | |
2011 | 0.016 | 0.003 | 0.010 | 0.022 | 1.0 | 9840 | 10296 | |
2010 | 0.016 | 0.003 | 0.009 | 0.022 | 1.0 | 7157 | 7083 | |
2009 | 0.012 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.020 | 1.0 | 6197 | 7584 | |
2008 | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.021 | 1.0 | 530 | 834 | |
2007 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.014 | 1.0 | 12906 | 9627 | |
2006 | 0.020 | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.028 | 1.0 | 9304 | 8755 | |
2005 | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.023 | 1.0 | 7717 | 7714 | |
2004 | 0.022 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.033 | 1.0 | 5540 | 5349 | |
2003 | 0.012 | 0.007 | -0.002 | 0.027 | 1.0 | 4575 | 3678 | |
2002 | 0.013 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.022 | 1.0 | 8616 | 6197 | |
b3 | 2018 | 0.073 | 0.019 | 0.036 | 0.110 | 1.0 | 10717 | 7884 |
2017 | 0.071 | 0.019 | 0.034 | 0.109 | 1.0 | 9693 | 7989 | |
2016 | 0.074 | 0.019 | 0.037 | 0.110 | 1.0 | 10788 | 8113 | |
2015 | 0.065 | 0.020 | 0.026 | 0.104 | 1.0 | 8947 | 8345 | |
2014 | 0.049 | 0.020 | 0.010 | 0.088 | 1.0 | 9325 | 8256 | |
2013 | 0.077 | 0.020 | 0.038 | 0.116 | 1.0 | 10698 | 8591 | |
2012 | 0.063 | 0.020 | 0.024 | 0.102 | 1.0 | 10140 | 8450 | |
2011 | 0.065 | 0.020 | 0.026 | 0.105 | 1.0 | 9910 | 8533 | |
2010 | 0.053 | 0.024 | 0.007 | 0.100 | 1.0 | 10206 | 8185 | |
2009 | 0.042 | 0.024 | -0.006 | 0.089 | 1.0 | 9027 | 8236 | |
2008 | 0.028 | 0.026 | -0.022 | 0.079 | 1.0 | 2244 | 3756 | |
2007 | 0.039 | 0.025 | -0.009 | 0.088 | 1.0 | 10045 | 8806 | |
2006 | 0.054 | 0.024 | 0.007 | 0.101 | 1.0 | 10492 | 8591 | |
2005 | 0.073 | 0.024 | 0.026 | 0.121 | 1.0 | 11261 | 8175 | |
2004 | 0.046 | 0.025 | -0.004 | 0.095 | 1.0 | 9463 | 7895 | |
2003 | 0.004 | 0.025 | -0.045 | 0.053 | 1.0 | 10237 | 8979 | |
2002 | 0.060 | 0.025 | 0.011 | 0.109 | 1.0 | 10752 | 8542 | |
b4 | 2018 | 0.132 | 0.009 | 0.115 | 0.149 | 1.0 | 11959 | 8746 |
2017 | 0.128 | 0.009 | 0.110 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 11301 | 8661 | |
2016 | 0.110 | 0.009 | 0.093 | 0.127 | 1.0 | 12113 | 8623 | |
2015 | 0.097 | 0.009 | 0.080 | 0.115 | 1.0 | 9775 | 8103 | |
2014 | 0.076 | 0.009 | 0.058 | 0.094 | 1.0 | 10253 | 8101 | |
2013 | 0.074 | 0.009 | 0.056 | 0.092 | 1.0 | 11165 | 8373 | |
2012 | 0.071 | 0.009 | 0.053 | 0.089 | 1.0 | 12530 | 9053 | |
2011 | 0.073 | 0.009 | 0.055 | 0.091 | 1.0 | 11845 | 8756 | |
2010 | 0.045 | 0.010 | 0.025 | 0.065 | 1.0 | 12191 | 8578 | |
2009 | 0.071 | 0.011 | 0.049 | 0.092 | 1.0 | 9237 | 8611 | |
2008 | 0.066 | 0.011 | 0.044 | 0.088 | 1.0 | 3845 | 7109 | |
2007 | 0.075 | 0.011 | 0.054 | 0.096 | 1.0 | 10838 | 9015 | |
2006 | 0.074 | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.095 | 1.0 | 12173 | 9130 | |
2005 | 0.080 | 0.011 | 0.059 | 0.101 | 1.0 | 11939 | 8713 | |
2004 | 0.082 | 0.011 | 0.061 | 0.104 | 1.0 | 10665 | 8649 | |
2003 | 0.054 | 0.011 | 0.033 | 0.074 | 1.0 | 10284 | 8558 | |
2002 | 0.060 | 0.011 | 0.039 | 0.081 | 1.0 | 10756 | 8857 | |
b5 | 2018 | 0.016 | 0.008 | -0.001 | 0.032 | 1.0 | 11663 | 9098 |
2017 | 0.030 | 0.008 | 0.014 | 0.046 | 1.0 | 11607 | 8329 | |
2016 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.043 | 1.0 | 11532 | 8579 | |
2015 | 0.017 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 9434 | 7923 | |
2014 | 0.033 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.049 | 1.0 | 9484 | 8329 | |
2013 | 0.041 | 0.008 | 0.025 | 0.058 | 1.0 | 11908 | 8558 | |
2012 | 0.030 | 0.008 | 0.014 | 0.046 | 1.0 | 10924 | 7667 | |
2011 | 0.043 | 0.008 | 0.027 | 0.060 | 1.0 | 11002 | 8876 | |
2010 | 0.025 | 0.010 | 0.007 | 0.044 | 1.0 | 12110 | 7915 | |
2009 | 0.031 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.051 | 1.0 | 9160 | 8286 | |
2008 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.046 | 1.0 | 7082 | 8188 | |
2007 | 0.017 | 0.010 | -0.002 | 0.036 | 1.0 | 10199 | 8608 | |
2006 | 0.014 | 0.009 | -0.004 | 0.032 | 1.0 | 12041 | 8631 | |
2005 | 0.022 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.040 | 1.0 | 12494 | 9177 | |
2004 | 0.021 | 0.009 | 0.002 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 10814 | 8859 | |
2003 | 0.013 | 0.009 | -0.005 | 0.032 | 1.0 | 10302 | 7902 | |
2002 | 0.002 | 0.009 | -0.017 | 0.020 | 1.0 | 11163 | 9103 | |
b6 | 2018 | 0.162 | 0.016 | 0.130 | 0.193 | 1.0 | 9865 | 7944 |
2017 | 0.159 | 0.016 | 0.127 | 0.190 | 1.0 | 11197 | 7971 | |
2016 | 0.165 | 0.016 | 0.133 | 0.197 | 1.0 | 10888 | 8354 | |
2015 | 0.160 | 0.017 | 0.127 | 0.192 | 1.0 | 9202 | 7339 | |
2014 | 0.130 | 0.017 | 0.098 | 0.163 | 1.0 | 10832 | 7900 | |
2013 | 0.161 | 0.017 | 0.128 | 0.194 | 1.0 | 11006 | 8196 | |
2012 | 0.168 | 0.016 | 0.136 | 0.201 | 1.0 | 11477 | 8679 | |
2011 | 0.136 | 0.017 | 0.104 | 0.170 | 1.0 | 9964 | 8329 | |
2010 | 0.180 | 0.019 | 0.142 | 0.218 | 1.0 | 10765 | 8249 | |
2009 | 0.172 | 0.020 | 0.134 | 0.210 | 1.0 | 9957 | 8526 | |
2008 | 0.145 | 0.020 | 0.106 | 0.185 | 1.0 | 8505 | 7925 | |
2007 | 0.151 | 0.020 | 0.112 | 0.189 | 1.0 | 10416 | 9283 | |
2006 | 0.136 | 0.019 | 0.099 | 0.173 | 1.0 | 11964 | 9168 | |
2005 | 0.138 | 0.020 | 0.100 | 0.177 | 1.0 | 11581 | 8240 | |
2004 | 0.160 | 0.020 | 0.122 | 0.199 | 1.0 | 10611 | 8103 | |
2003 | 0.139 | 0.019 | 0.100 | 0.177 | 1.0 | 10127 | 8282 | |
2002 | 0.147 | 0.019 | 0.109 | 0.185 | 1.0 | 9774 | 8327 | |
sigma | 2018 | 0.974 | 0.006 | 0.963 | 0.986 | 1.0 | 14363 | 7948 |
2017 | 0.976 | 0.006 | 0.965 | 0.987 | 1.0 | 13600 | 8942 | |
2016 | 0.979 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.990 | 1.0 | 13047 | 8290 | |
2015 | 0.979 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 10722 | 7072 | |
2014 | 0.983 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 13804 | 7918 | |
2013 | 0.982 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.994 | 1.0 | 13098 | 8423 | |
2012 | 0.980 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 13793 | 8555 | |
2011 | 0.980 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.992 | 1.0 | 13602 | 8017 | |
2010 | 0.983 | 0.007 | 0.970 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 14103 | 7706 | |
2009 | 0.981 | 0.007 | 0.968 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 12494 | 8176 | |
2008 | 0.982 | 0.007 | 0.969 | 0.996 | 1.0 | 9984 | 8065 | |
2007 | 0.982 | 0.007 | 0.969 | 0.996 | 1.0 | 14007 | 9162 | |
2006 | 0.981 | 0.007 | 0.968 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 13423 | 8497 | |
2005 | 0.981 | 0.007 | 0.968 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 15259 | 8598 | |
2004 | 0.980 | 0.007 | 0.967 | 0.994 | 1.0 | 13331 | 8391 | |
2003 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.971 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 10878 | 8060 | |
2002 | 0.988 | 0.007 | 0.974 | 1.001 | 1.0 | 12558 | 8578 |
Parameter | Year | Estimate | Est.Error | l-95% CI | u-95% CI | Rhat | Bulk_ESS | Tail_ESS |
Intercept | 2018 | -0.316 | 0.019 | -0.353 | -0.277 | 1.0 | 14006 | 10228 |
2017 | -0.291 | 0.019 | -0.329 | -0.253 | 1.0 | 13073 | 10321 | |
2016 | -0.306 | 0.019 | -0.344 | -0.268 | 1.0 | 14068 | 10370 | |
2015 | -0.313 | 0.020 | -0.353 | -0.274 | 1.0 | 13763 | 10488 | |
2014 | -0.297 | 0.020 | -0.335 | -0.258 | 1.0 | 14018 | 10053 | |
2013 | -0.312 | 0.020 | -0.351 | -0.272 | 1.0 | 15651 | 10085 | |
2012 | -0.334 | 0.020 | -0.374 | -0.294 | 1.0 | 15044 | 9419 | |
2011 | -0.329 | 0.020 | -0.368 | -0.288 | 1.0 | 15264 | 10032 | |
2010 | -0.293 | 0.023 | -0.338 | -0.250 | 1.0 | 15413 | 10151 | |
2009 | -0.322 | 0.023 | -0.368 | -0.276 | 1.0 | 15612 | 10143 | |
2008 | -0.286 | 0.023 | -0.332 | -0.242 | 1.0 | 14927 | 10486 | |
2007 | -0.234 | 0.022 | -0.278 | -0.192 | 1.0 | 14104 | 10340 | |
2006 | -0.300 | 0.023 | -0.344 | -0.255 | 1.0 | 14512 | 9458 | |
2005 | -0.304 | 0.023 | -0.350 | -0.258 | 1.0 | 18269 | 9269 | |
2004 | -0.337 | 0.023 | -0.383 | -0.291 | 1.0 | 16123 | 9961 | |
2003 | -0.300 | 0.023 | -0.345 | -0.255 | 1.0 | 14964 | 10083 | |
2002 | -0.237 | 0.022 | -0.280 | -0.193 | 1.0 | 15569 | 9592 | |
dollars | 2018 | 0.033 | 0.002 | 0.029 | 0.037 | 1.0 | 19127 | 9998 |
2017 | 0.027 | 0.002 | 0.024 | 0.031 | 1.0 | 18387 | 10060 | |
2016 | 0.030 | 0.002 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 19864 | 10204 | |
2015 | 0.034 | 0.002 | 0.029 | 0.038 | 1.0 | 20147 | 10087 | |
2014 | 0.031 | 0.002 | 0.027 | 0.035 | 1.0 | 20813 | 9558 | |
2013 | 0.029 | 0.002 | 0.025 | 0.033 | 1.0 | 20564 | 9776 | |
2012 | 0.035 | 0.002 | 0.031 | 0.040 | 1.0 | 19263 | 9816 | |
2011 | 0.035 | 0.002 | 0.030 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 18440 | 9290 | |
2010 | 0.030 | 0.002 | 0.025 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 19683 | 10210 | |
2009 | 0.034 | 0.003 | 0.029 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 19411 | 10133 | |
2008 | 0.032 | 0.002 | 0.027 | 0.037 | 1.0 | 19275 | 10239 | |
2007 | 0.025 | 0.002 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 20606 | 9870 | |
2006 | 0.040 | 0.003 | 0.034 | 0.045 | 1.0 | 20396 | 10117 | |
2005 | 0.040 | 0.003 | 0.034 | 0.046 | 1.0 | 22024 | 9664 | |
2004 | 0.048 | 0.003 | 0.041 | 0.054 | 1.0 | 19019 | 9389 | |
2003 | 0.046 | 0.003 | 0.039 | 0.052 | 1.0 | 17897 | 9692 | |
2002 | 0.033 | 0.003 | 0.027 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 19647 | 9792 | |
grad | 2018 | 0.103 | 0.019 | 0.066 | 0.140 | 1.0 | 11657 | 8807 |
2017 | 0.108 | 0.019 | 0.071 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 10077 | 8584 | |
2016 | 0.098 | 0.019 | 0.061 | 0.136 | 1.0 | 9644 | 8660 | |
2015 | 0.086 | 0.020 | 0.048 | 0.124 | 1.0 | 11031 | 8890 | |
2014 | 0.068 | 0.020 | 0.029 | 0.105 | 1.0 | 11203 | 8900 | |
2013 | 0.097 | 0.020 | 0.058 | 0.136 | 1.0 | 12095 | 8973 | |
2012 | 0.078 | 0.020 | 0.039 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 10996 | 9294 | |
2011 | 0.079 | 0.020 | 0.039 | 0.119 | 1.0 | 12104 | 8737 | |
2010 | 0.064 | 0.023 | 0.018 | 0.110 | 1.0 | 12782 | 8831 | |
2009 | 0.064 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.111 | 1.0 | 12111 | 8978 | |
2008 | 0.054 | 0.025 | 0.006 | 0.103 | 1.0 | 12808 | 8695 | |
2007 | 0.067 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.114 | 1.0 | 10230 | 8570 | |
2006 | 0.071 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 11556 | 9107 | |
2005 | 0.096 | 0.025 | 0.047 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 15613 | 9054 | |
2004 | 0.060 | 0.025 | 0.011 | 0.108 | 1.0 | 10952 | 9517 | |
2003 | 0.027 | 0.025 | -0.022 | 0.076 | 1.0 | 11297 | 9208 | |
2002 | 0.069 | 0.025 | 0.021 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 12773 | 8684 | |
age | 2018 | 0.115 | 0.009 | 0.098 | 0.132 | 1.0 | 11227 | 9635 |
2017 | 0.106 | 0.009 | 0.090 | 0.123 | 1.0 | 11325 | 8997 | |
2016 | 0.091 | 0.009 | 0.075 | 0.108 | 1.0 | 12091 | 8374 | |
2015 | 0.082 | 0.009 | 0.064 | 0.099 | 1.0 | 10567 | 8693 | |
2014 | 0.058 | 0.009 | 0.040 | 0.076 | 1.0 | 10989 | 8467 | |
2013 | 0.056 | 0.009 | 0.038 | 0.074 | 1.0 | 12008 | 9546 | |
2012 | 0.049 | 0.009 | 0.032 | 0.067 | 1.0 | 11331 | 9625 | |
2011 | 0.050 | 0.009 | 0.032 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 13077 | 9763 | |
2010 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.006 | 0.047 | 1.0 | 10760 | 8808 | |
2009 | 0.047 | 0.011 | 0.026 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 10922 | 8987 | |
2008 | 0.041 | 0.011 | 0.021 | 0.062 | 1.0 | 12210 | 9086 | |
2007 | 0.048 | 0.011 | 0.028 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 12197 | 10017 | |
2006 | 0.054 | 0.010 | 0.033 | 0.074 | 1.0 | 11566 | 9238 | |
2005 | 0.059 | 0.011 | 0.038 | 0.080 | 1.0 | 14325 | 9516 | |
2004 | 0.066 | 0.011 | 0.045 | 0.087 | 1.0 | 11391 | 9310 | |
2003 | 0.043 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.064 | 1.0 | 12258 | 9349 | |
2002 | 0.045 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.066 | 1.0 | 11233 | 8473 | |
age_sq | 2018 | -0.001 | 0.008 | -0.017 | 0.015 | 1.0 | 11109 | 8882 |
2017 | 0.010 | 0.008 | -0.006 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 10722 | 8526 | |
2016 | 0.010 | 0.008 | -0.006 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 10926 | 8888 | |
2015 | 0.002 | 0.008 | -0.014 | 0.018 | 1.0 | 10702 | 8938 | |
2014 | 0.018 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 10944 | 8950 | |
2013 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.042 | 1.0 | 11501 | 9677 | |
2012 | 0.014 | 0.008 | -0.003 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 11191 | 8770 | |
2011 | 0.025 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.041 | 1.0 | 12111 | 9170 | |
2010 | 0.011 | 0.009 | -0.007 | 0.029 | 1.0 | 11752 | 9509 | |
2009 | 0.016 | 0.009 | -0.003 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 11600 | 9348 | |
2008 | 0.012 | 0.010 | -0.008 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 11560 | 9064 | |
2007 | -0.002 | 0.010 | -0.021 | 0.017 | 1.0 | 10630 | 8049 | |
2006 | -0.000 | 0.009 | -0.018 | 0.018 | 1.0 | 11386 | 8843 | |
2005 | 0.008 | 0.009 | -0.010 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 14429 | 8527 | |
2004 | 0.009 | 0.009 | -0.009 | 0.028 | 1.0 | 11468 | 9210 | |
2003 | 0.007 | 0.009 | -0.011 | 0.025 | 1.0 | 11813 | 8675 | |
2002 | -0.009 | 0.009 | -0.026 | 0.010 | 1.0 | 11330 | 9643 | |
male | 2018 | 0.171 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.203 | 1.0 | 12081 | 8698 |
2017 | 0.170 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 11135 | 7889 | |
2016 | 0.174 | 0.016 | 0.142 | 0.207 | 1.0 | 11233 | 8879 | |
2015 | 0.167 | 0.017 | 0.134 | 0.200 | 1.0 | 11220 | 8949 | |
2014 | 0.138 | 0.017 | 0.104 | 0.170 | 1.0 | 10685 | 9161 | |
2013 | 0.169 | 0.017 | 0.136 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 11261 | 8336 | |
2012 | 0.177 | 0.017 | 0.143 | 0.209 | 1.0 | 9968 | 8683 | |
2011 | 0.148 | 0.017 | 0.115 | 0.181 | 1.0 | 10976 | 8591 | |
2010 | 0.188 | 0.019 | 0.151 | 0.225 | 1.0 | 13088 | 9238 | |
2009 | 0.183 | 0.020 | 0.145 | 0.221 | 1.0 | 11448 | 8924 | |
2008 | 0.155 | 0.020 | 0.116 | 0.194 | 1.0 | 12673 | 9016 | |
2007 | 0.164 | 0.020 | 0.125 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 10811 | 8779 | |
2006 | 0.146 | 0.019 | 0.108 | 0.184 | 1.0 | 12257 | 8727 | |
2005 | 0.145 | 0.019 | 0.108 | 0.183 | 1.0 | 16872 | 9600 | |
2004 | 0.168 | 0.019 | 0.130 | 0.206 | 1.0 | 12085 | 9283 | |
2003 | 0.144 | 0.019 | 0.107 | 0.182 | 1.0 | 13152 | 9230 | |
2002 | 0.153 | 0.019 | 0.116 | 0.191 | 1.0 | 13412 | 9750 | |
sigma | 2018 | 0.979 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 14442 | 9369 |
2017 | 0.982 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 13014 | 8298 | |
2016 | 0.983 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 14319 | 8855 | |
2015 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 15810 | 8843 | |
2014 | 0.987 | 0.006 | 0.975 | 0.999 | 1.0 | 12493 | 8776 | |
2013 | 0.986 | 0.006 | 0.974 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 12853 | 9242 | |
2012 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.996 | 1.0 | 14535 | 9003 | |
2011 | 0.985 | 0.006 | 0.974 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 14082 | 9203 | |
2010 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.974 | 1.001 | 1.0 | 15396 | 8926 | |
2009 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 0.999 | 1.0 | 15378 | 9419 | |
2008 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.973 | 1.001 | 1.0 | 14429 | 8890 | |
2007 | 0.989 | 0.007 | 0.976 | 1.003 | 1.0 | 13405 | 9885 | |
2006 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 13470 | 9216 | |
2005 | 0.986 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 1.000 | 1.0 | 18106 | 9150 | |
2004 | 0.983 | 0.007 | 0.970 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 13797 | 8844 | |
2003 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.974 | 1.000 | 1.0 | 15662 | 8452 | |
2002 | 0.990 | 0.007 | 0.977 | 1.004 | 1.0 | 15600 | 9265 |
Parameter | Year | Estimate | Est.Error | l-95% CI | u-95% CI | Rhat | Bulk_ESS | Tail_ESS |
alpha | 2018 | -3.009 | 0.087 | -3.159 | -2.825 | 1.0 | 5796 | 6401 |
2017 | -2.591 | 0.128 | -2.835 | -2.371 | 1.0 | 3522 | 7302 | |
2016 | -2.848 | 0.120 | -3.052 | -2.557 | 1.0 | 2882 | 2724 | |
2015 | -2.543 | 0.148 | -3.034 | -2.355 | 1.0 | 2345 | 752 | |
2014 | -2.419 | 0.073 | -2.587 | -2.287 | 1.0 | 6196 | 3543 | |
2013 | -2.809 | 0.077 | -2.946 | -2.647 | 1.0 | 5706 | 6100 | |
2012 | -2.744 | 0.060 | -2.854 | -2.617 | 1.0 | 6608 | 5786 | |
2011 | -3.052 | 0.110 | -3.245 | -2.839 | 1.0 | 3674 | 8091 | |
2010 | -2.097 | 0.165 | -2.471 | -1.816 | 1.0 | 5211 | 4410 | |
2009 | -2.933 | 0.206 | -3.259 | -2.539 | 1.0 | 2544 | 6140 | |
2008 | -2.291 | 0.217 | -2.743 | -1.826 | 1.0 | 3370 | 2947 | |
2007 | -2.762 | 0.172 | -3.062 | -2.325 | 1.0 | 3736 | 2942 | |
2006 | 0.150 | 2.619 | -3.305 | 5.689 | 1.5 | 7 | 122 | |
2005 | -2.225 | 0.324 | -2.795 | -1.513 | 1.0 | 2470 | 2825 | |
2004 | -3.107 | 0.378 | -3.564 | -2.223 | 1.0 | 1913 | 3248 | |
2003 | -2.646 | 0.190 | -2.983 | -2.256 | 1.0 | 4233 | 5396 | |
2002 | -3.038 | 0.295 | -3.530 | -2.380 | 1.0 | 3088 | 3259 | |
b0 | 2018 | -0.068 | 0.025 | -0.114 | -0.018 | 1.0 | 6309 | 7242 |
2017 | 0.056 | 0.038 | -0.015 | 0.128 | 1.0 | 3505 | 6850 | |
2016 | -0.036 | 0.032 | -0.092 | 0.038 | 1.0 | 2962 | 2360 | |
2015 | 0.031 | 0.042 | -0.087 | 0.096 | 1.0 | 2239 | 795 | |
2014 | 0.094 | 0.028 | 0.035 | 0.148 | 1.0 | 5861 | 4248 | |
2013 | -0.014 | 0.024 | -0.059 | 0.035 | 1.0 | 6436 | 6114 | |
2012 | -0.016 | 0.022 | -0.059 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 6943 | 6921 | |
2011 | -0.058 | 0.028 | -0.109 | -0.002 | 1.0 | 3975 | 6762 | |
2010 | 0.129 | 0.056 | 0.015 | 0.237 | 1.0 | 5496 | 5272 | |
2009 | -0.031 | 0.043 | -0.101 | 0.059 | 1.0 | 2400 | 6255 | |
2008 | 0.122 | 0.068 | 0.001 | 0.271 | 1.0 | 3384 | 2988 | |
2007 | 0.074 | 0.041 | 0.007 | 0.177 | 1.0 | 3712 | 3056 | |
2006 | 1.126 | 0.944 | -0.073 | 2.599 | 1.5 | 7 | 91 | |
2005 | 0.217 | 0.125 | 0.040 | 0.521 | 1.0 | 2533 | 2776 | |
2004 | 0.033 | 0.084 | -0.065 | 0.249 | 1.0 | 1917 | 3027 | |
2003 | 0.134 | 0.057 | 0.039 | 0.258 | 1.0 | 4440 | 5418 | |
2002 | 0.027 | 0.060 | -0.067 | 0.170 | 1.0 | 3120 | 3468 | |
b1 | 2018 | 0.115 | 0.015 | 0.087 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 6905 | 8168 |
2017 | 0.077 | 0.010 | 0.061 | 0.100 | 1.0 | 4224 | 6443 | |
2016 | 0.098 | 0.014 | 0.070 | 0.128 | 1.0 | 3495 | 3178 | |
2015 | 0.070 | 0.012 | 0.056 | 0.106 | 1.0 | 2591 | 811 | |
2014 | 0.064 | 0.005 | 0.055 | 0.075 | 1.0 | 8802 | 6392 | |
2013 | 0.088 | 0.009 | 0.070 | 0.107 | 1.0 | 7204 | 7706 | |
2012 | 0.087 | 0.008 | 0.072 | 0.102 | 1.0 | 8564 | 7777 | |
2011 | 0.124 | 0.018 | 0.092 | 0.162 | 1.0 | 4164 | 7290 | |
2010 | 0.043 | 0.005 | 0.034 | 0.054 | 1.0 | 7594 | 6355 | |
2009 | 0.089 | 0.020 | 0.058 | 0.128 | 1.0 | 2771 | 7262 | |
2008 | 0.050 | 0.007 | 0.038 | 0.067 | 1.0 | 4919 | 4199 | |
2007 | 0.077 | 0.014 | 0.051 | 0.105 | 1.0 | 4578 | 4413 | |
2006 | 0.033 | 0.023 | 0.021 | 0.074 | 1.3 | 9 | 101 | |
2005 | 0.050 | 0.007 | 0.038 | 0.065 | 1.0 | 4076 | 4885 | |
2004 | 0.099 | 0.034 | 0.049 | 0.167 | 1.0 | 2046 | 4384 | |
2003 | 0.067 | 0.010 | 0.050 | 0.088 | 1.0 | 5513 | 6127 | |
2002 | 0.086 | 0.026 | 0.049 | 0.149 | 1.0 | 3470 | 5376 | |
b2 | 2018 | 0.018 | 0.003 | 0.013 | 0.023 | 1.0 | 11457 | 9423 |
2017 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.015 | 1.0 | 6091 | 7618 | |
2016 | 0.014 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.019 | 1.0 | 5105 | 4907 | |
2015 | 0.012 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.021 | 1.0 | 2956 | 1315 | |
2014 | 0.010 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.016 | 1.0 | 9955 | 7475 | |
2013 | 0.015 | 0.003 | 0.009 | 0.020 | 1.0 | 10976 | 8677 | |
2012 | 0.012 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.018 | 1.0 | 13160 | 9581 | |
2011 | 0.017 | 0.003 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 1.0 | 7133 | 8981 | |
2010 | 0.002 | 0.005 | -0.008 | 0.012 | 1.0 | 7857 | 7330 | |
2009 | 0.014 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.021 | 1.0 | 4111 | 7159 | |
2008 | 0.007 | 0.005 | -0.003 | 0.016 | 1.0 | 5080 | 4397 | |
2007 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.014 | 1.0 | 5986 | 6240 | |
2006 | 0.005 | 2.257 | -5.187 | 5.088 | 1.4 | 1698 | 406 | |
2005 | 0.009 | 0.009 | -0.009 | 0.023 | 1.0 | 3654 | 3400 | |
2004 | 0.022 | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.032 | 1.0 | 2627 | 3807 | |
2003 | 0.012 | 0.007 | -0.003 | 0.024 | 1.0 | 6270 | 6729 | |
2002 | 0.018 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.028 | 1.0 | 4458 | 4674 | |
b3 | 2018 | 0.009 | 0.018 | -0.027 | 0.045 | 1.0 | 10675 | 8368 |
2017 | -0.012 | 0.019 | -0.049 | 0.025 | 1.0 | 7633 | 7876 | |
2016 | 0.008 | 0.018 | -0.028 | 0.044 | 1.0 | 8625 | 7399 | |
2015 | -0.009 | 0.019 | -0.046 | 0.029 | 1.0 | 8874 | 8246 | |
2014 | -0.017 | 0.019 | -0.054 | 0.019 | 1.0 | 10781 | 8711 | |
2013 | -0.037 | 0.019 | -0.073 | 0.000 | 1.0 | 10542 | 8903 | |
2012 | -0.009 | 0.019 | -0.047 | 0.029 | 1.0 | 9819 | 8157 | |
2011 | -0.011 | 0.019 | -0.049 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 10814 | 8505 | |
2010 | -0.021 | 0.023 | -0.065 | 0.024 | 1.0 | 9141 | 8602 | |
2009 | -0.013 | 0.023 | -0.057 | 0.032 | 1.0 | 7964 | 8206 | |
2008 | -0.043 | 0.023 | -0.089 | 0.003 | 1.0 | 10047 | 8705 | |
2007 | -0.078 | 0.024 | -0.125 | -0.031 | 1.0 | 8492 | 8387 | |
2006 | -0.036 | 0.024 | -0.083 | 0.011 | 1.0 | 145 | 5732 | |
2005 | -0.083 | 0.024 | -0.130 | -0.036 | 1.0 | 8653 | 7735 | |
2004 | -0.082 | 0.024 | -0.130 | -0.033 | 1.0 | 6691 | 7545 | |
2003 | -0.109 | 0.024 | -0.158 | -0.062 | 1.0 | 10328 | 8628 | |
2002 | -0.085 | 0.025 | -0.132 | -0.037 | 1.0 | 9829 | 7970 | |
b4 | 2018 | 0.070 | 0.008 | 0.053 | 0.086 | 1.0 | 11685 | 8285 |
2017 | 0.061 | 0.008 | 0.044 | 0.077 | 1.0 | 9594 | 8649 | |
2016 | 0.070 | 0.008 | 0.053 | 0.086 | 1.0 | 9173 | 9239 | |
2015 | 0.055 | 0.008 | 0.038 | 0.071 | 1.0 | 10474 | 8393 | |
2014 | 0.066 | 0.008 | 0.050 | 0.083 | 1.0 | 12341 | 8631 | |
2013 | 0.077 | 0.008 | 0.060 | 0.094 | 1.0 | 9937 | 8223 | |
2012 | 0.065 | 0.008 | 0.048 | 0.081 | 1.0 | 10424 | 8336 | |
2011 | 0.060 | 0.009 | 0.043 | 0.077 | 1.0 | 10762 | 8558 | |
2010 | 0.051 | 0.010 | 0.033 | 0.070 | 1.0 | 10826 | 7560 | |
2009 | 0.086 | 0.010 | 0.067 | 0.106 | 1.0 | 10700 | 8548 | |
2008 | 0.087 | 0.010 | 0.068 | 0.106 | 1.0 | 10667 | 9292 | |
2007 | 0.106 | 0.010 | 0.087 | 0.126 | 1.0 | 9486 | 7714 | |
2006 | 0.109 | 0.010 | 0.090 | 0.130 | 1.0 | 100 | 5090 | |
2005 | 0.121 | 0.010 | 0.102 | 0.141 | 1.0 | 9190 | 8563 | |
2004 | 0.128 | 0.010 | 0.108 | 0.148 | 1.0 | 9179 | 8503 | |
2003 | 0.123 | 0.010 | 0.103 | 0.143 | 1.0 | 10191 | 8337 | |
2002 | 0.129 | 0.010 | 0.109 | 0.149 | 1.0 | 10190 | 8747 | |
b5 | 2018 | 0.134 | 0.008 | 0.119 | 0.150 | 1.0 | 11021 | 8946 |
2017 | 0.118 | 0.008 | 0.103 | 0.133 | 1.0 | 8717 | 8302 | |
2016 | 0.130 | 0.008 | 0.114 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 9345 | 8519 | |
2015 | 0.131 | 0.008 | 0.116 | 0.146 | 1.0 | 11314 | 8777 | |
2014 | 0.129 | 0.008 | 0.115 | 0.144 | 1.0 | 12129 | 8086 | |
2013 | 0.130 | 0.008 | 0.115 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 11579 | 8894 | |
2012 | 0.141 | 0.008 | 0.126 | 0.156 | 1.0 | 10954 | 8394 | |
2011 | 0.135 | 0.008 | 0.120 | 0.150 | 1.0 | 9739 | 8752 | |
2010 | 0.123 | 0.009 | 0.107 | 0.140 | 1.0 | 10126 | 8895 | |
2009 | 0.111 | 0.009 | 0.094 | 0.128 | 1.0 | 9536 | 8098 | |
2008 | 0.109 | 0.009 | 0.092 | 0.126 | 1.0 | 10640 | 8690 | |
2007 | 0.081 | 0.009 | 0.064 | 0.099 | 1.0 | 9577 | 8634 | |
2006 | 0.084 | 0.009 | 0.067 | 0.101 | 1.0 | 216 | 6141 | |
2005 | 0.092 | 0.009 | 0.076 | 0.110 | 1.0 | 9211 | 8415 | |
2004 | 0.081 | 0.009 | 0.064 | 0.098 | 1.0 | 8662 | 7884 | |
2003 | 0.091 | 0.009 | 0.075 | 0.108 | 1.0 | 10073 | 8832 | |
2002 | 0.081 | 0.008 | 0.065 | 0.098 | 1.0 | 10453 | 9043 | |
b6 | 2018 | -0.063 | 0.016 | -0.094 | -0.032 | 1.0 | 10751 | 8041 |
2017 | -0.059 | 0.016 | -0.089 | -0.027 | 1.0 | 8916 | 8293 | |
2016 | -0.035 | 0.016 | -0.066 | -0.004 | 1.0 | 8853 | 8230 | |
2015 | -0.039 | 0.016 | -0.070 | -0.008 | 1.0 | 9617 | 7984 | |
2014 | -0.099 | 0.016 | -0.129 | -0.067 | 1.0 | 11675 | 8109 | |
2013 | -0.061 | 0.016 | -0.093 | -0.030 | 1.0 | 10075 | 8441 | |
2012 | -0.045 | 0.016 | -0.077 | -0.013 | 1.0 | 9777 | 8853 | |
2011 | -0.069 | 0.016 | -0.100 | -0.038 | 1.0 | 11111 | 8662 | |
2010 | -0.044 | 0.018 | -0.079 | -0.009 | 1.0 | 9624 | 7946 | |
2009 | -0.054 | 0.018 | -0.089 | -0.018 | 1.0 | 9452 | 8027 | |
2008 | -0.061 | 0.019 | -0.098 | -0.025 | 1.0 | 10248 | 7732 | |
2007 | -0.071 | 0.019 | -0.108 | -0.034 | 1.0 | 9126 | 8451 | |
2006 | -0.066 | 0.018 | -0.103 | -0.030 | 1.0 | 6185 | 6126 | |
2005 | -0.094 | 0.019 | -0.130 | -0.057 | 1.0 | 9648 | 8018 | |
2004 | -0.106 | 0.019 | -0.142 | -0.070 | 1.0 | 8243 | 7566 | |
2003 | -0.104 | 0.018 | -0.140 | -0.068 | 1.0 | 10116 | 7952 | |
2002 | -0.061 | 0.018 | -0.097 | -0.025 | 1.0 | 10694 | 7985 | |
sigma | 2018 | 0.981 | 0.005 | 0.970 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 14252 | 8298 |
2017 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.973 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 10967 | 8445 | |
2016 | 0.982 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 13353 | 9321 | |
2015 | 0.983 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 13255 | 8527 | |
2014 | 0.980 | 0.005 | 0.970 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 14400 | 8809 | |
2013 | 0.981 | 0.006 | 0.970 | 0.992 | 1.0 | 13524 | 8950 | |
2012 | 0.981 | 0.006 | 0.970 | 0.992 | 1.0 | 13467 | 8290 | |
2011 | 0.981 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.992 | 1.0 | 13995 | 8536 | |
2010 | 0.986 | 0.006 | 0.973 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 10911 | 8138 | |
2009 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 12041 | 7619 | |
2008 | 0.984 | 0.007 | 0.971 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 12117 | 8265 | |
2007 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.973 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 11081 | 8287 | |
2006 | 0.985 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 8021 | 7397 | |
2005 | 0.981 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.994 | 1.0 | 10740 | 8300 | |
2004 | 0.981 | 0.007 | 0.968 | 0.994 | 1.0 | 10144 | 8388 | |
2003 | 0.980 | 0.006 | 0.967 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 12774 | 8366 | |
2002 | 0.982 | 0.006 | 0.970 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 11710 | 8077 |
Parameter | Year | Estimate | Est.Error | l-95% CI | u-95% CI | Rhat | Bulk_ESS | Tail_ESS |
Intercept | 2018 | -0.316 | 0.019 | -0.353 | -0.277 | 1.0 | 14006 | 10228 |
2017 | -0.291 | 0.019 | -0.329 | -0.253 | 1.0 | 13073 | 10321 | |
2016 | -0.306 | 0.019 | -0.344 | -0.268 | 1.0 | 14068 | 10370 | |
2015 | -0.313 | 0.020 | -0.353 | -0.274 | 1.0 | 13763 | 10488 | |
2014 | -0.297 | 0.020 | -0.335 | -0.258 | 1.0 | 14018 | 10053 | |
2013 | -0.312 | 0.020 | -0.351 | -0.272 | 1.0 | 15651 | 10085 | |
2012 | -0.334 | 0.020 | -0.374 | -0.294 | 1.0 | 15044 | 9419 | |
2011 | -0.329 | 0.020 | -0.368 | -0.288 | 1.0 | 15264 | 10032 | |
2010 | -0.293 | 0.023 | -0.338 | -0.250 | 1.0 | 15413 | 10151 | |
2009 | -0.322 | 0.023 | -0.368 | -0.276 | 1.0 | 15612 | 10143 | |
2008 | -0.286 | 0.023 | -0.332 | -0.242 | 1.0 | 14927 | 10486 | |
2007 | -0.234 | 0.022 | -0.278 | -0.192 | 1.0 | 14104 | 10340 | |
2006 | -0.300 | 0.023 | -0.344 | -0.255 | 1.0 | 14512 | 9458 | |
2005 | -0.304 | 0.023 | -0.350 | -0.258 | 1.0 | 18269 | 9269 | |
2004 | -0.337 | 0.023 | -0.383 | -0.291 | 1.0 | 16123 | 9961 | |
2003 | -0.300 | 0.023 | -0.345 | -0.255 | 1.0 | 14964 | 10083 | |
2002 | -0.237 | 0.022 | -0.280 | -0.193 | 1.0 | 15569 | 9592 | |
dollars | 2018 | 0.033 | 0.002 | 0.029 | 0.037 | 1.0 | 19127 | 9998 |
2017 | 0.027 | 0.002 | 0.024 | 0.031 | 1.0 | 18387 | 10060 | |
2016 | 0.030 | 0.002 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 19864 | 10204 | |
2015 | 0.034 | 0.002 | 0.029 | 0.038 | 1.0 | 20147 | 10087 | |
2014 | 0.031 | 0.002 | 0.027 | 0.035 | 1.0 | 20813 | 9558 | |
2013 | 0.029 | 0.002 | 0.025 | 0.033 | 1.0 | 20564 | 9776 | |
2012 | 0.035 | 0.002 | 0.031 | 0.040 | 1.0 | 19263 | 9816 | |
2011 | 0.035 | 0.002 | 0.030 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 18440 | 9290 | |
2010 | 0.030 | 0.002 | 0.025 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 19683 | 10210 | |
2009 | 0.034 | 0.003 | 0.029 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 19411 | 10133 | |
2008 | 0.032 | 0.002 | 0.027 | 0.037 | 1.0 | 19275 | 10239 | |
2007 | 0.025 | 0.002 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 20606 | 9870 | |
2006 | 0.040 | 0.003 | 0.034 | 0.045 | 1.0 | 20396 | 10117 | |
2005 | 0.040 | 0.003 | 0.034 | 0.046 | 1.0 | 22024 | 9664 | |
2004 | 0.048 | 0.003 | 0.041 | 0.054 | 1.0 | 19019 | 9389 | |
2003 | 0.046 | 0.003 | 0.039 | 0.052 | 1.0 | 17897 | 9692 | |
2002 | 0.033 | 0.003 | 0.027 | 0.039 | 1.0 | 19647 | 9792 | |
grad | 2018 | 0.103 | 0.019 | 0.066 | 0.140 | 1.0 | 11657 | 8807 |
2017 | 0.108 | 0.019 | 0.071 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 10077 | 8584 | |
2016 | 0.098 | 0.019 | 0.061 | 0.136 | 1.0 | 9644 | 8660 | |
2015 | 0.086 | 0.020 | 0.048 | 0.124 | 1.0 | 11031 | 8890 | |
2014 | 0.068 | 0.020 | 0.029 | 0.105 | 1.0 | 11203 | 8900 | |
2013 | 0.097 | 0.020 | 0.058 | 0.136 | 1.0 | 12095 | 8973 | |
2012 | 0.078 | 0.020 | 0.039 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 10996 | 9294 | |
2011 | 0.079 | 0.020 | 0.039 | 0.119 | 1.0 | 12104 | 8737 | |
2010 | 0.064 | 0.023 | 0.018 | 0.110 | 1.0 | 12782 | 8831 | |
2009 | 0.064 | 0.024 | 0.017 | 0.111 | 1.0 | 12111 | 8978 | |
2008 | 0.054 | 0.025 | 0.006 | 0.103 | 1.0 | 12808 | 8695 | |
2007 | 0.067 | 0.024 | 0.020 | 0.114 | 1.0 | 10230 | 8570 | |
2006 | 0.071 | 0.024 | 0.024 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 11556 | 9107 | |
2005 | 0.096 | 0.025 | 0.047 | 0.145 | 1.0 | 15613 | 9054 | |
2004 | 0.060 | 0.025 | 0.011 | 0.108 | 1.0 | 10952 | 9517 | |
2003 | 0.027 | 0.025 | -0.022 | 0.076 | 1.0 | 11297 | 9208 | |
2002 | 0.069 | 0.025 | 0.021 | 0.118 | 1.0 | 12773 | 8684 | |
age | 2018 | 0.115 | 0.009 | 0.098 | 0.132 | 1.0 | 11227 | 9635 |
2017 | 0.106 | 0.009 | 0.090 | 0.123 | 1.0 | 11325 | 8997 | |
2016 | 0.091 | 0.009 | 0.075 | 0.108 | 1.0 | 12091 | 8374 | |
2015 | 0.082 | 0.009 | 0.064 | 0.099 | 1.0 | 10567 | 8693 | |
2014 | 0.058 | 0.009 | 0.040 | 0.076 | 1.0 | 10989 | 8467 | |
2013 | 0.056 | 0.009 | 0.038 | 0.074 | 1.0 | 12008 | 9546 | |
2012 | 0.049 | 0.009 | 0.032 | 0.067 | 1.0 | 11331 | 9625 | |
2011 | 0.050 | 0.009 | 0.032 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 13077 | 9763 | |
2010 | 0.027 | 0.010 | 0.006 | 0.047 | 1.0 | 10760 | 8808 | |
2009 | 0.047 | 0.011 | 0.026 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 10922 | 8987 | |
2008 | 0.041 | 0.011 | 0.021 | 0.062 | 1.0 | 12210 | 9086 | |
2007 | 0.048 | 0.011 | 0.028 | 0.068 | 1.0 | 12197 | 10017 | |
2006 | 0.054 | 0.010 | 0.033 | 0.074 | 1.0 | 11566 | 9238 | |
2005 | 0.059 | 0.011 | 0.038 | 0.080 | 1.0 | 14325 | 9516 | |
2004 | 0.066 | 0.011 | 0.045 | 0.087 | 1.0 | 11391 | 9310 | |
2003 | 0.043 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.064 | 1.0 | 12258 | 9349 | |
2002 | 0.045 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.066 | 1.0 | 11233 | 8473 | |
age_sq | 2018 | -0.001 | 0.008 | -0.017 | 0.015 | 1.0 | 11109 | 8882 |
2017 | 0.010 | 0.008 | -0.006 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 10722 | 8526 | |
2016 | 0.010 | 0.008 | -0.006 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 10926 | 8888 | |
2015 | 0.002 | 0.008 | -0.014 | 0.018 | 1.0 | 10702 | 8938 | |
2014 | 0.018 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 10944 | 8950 | |
2013 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.042 | 1.0 | 11501 | 9677 | |
2012 | 0.014 | 0.008 | -0.003 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 11191 | 8770 | |
2011 | 0.025 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.041 | 1.0 | 12111 | 9170 | |
2010 | 0.011 | 0.009 | -0.007 | 0.029 | 1.0 | 11752 | 9509 | |
2009 | 0.016 | 0.009 | -0.003 | 0.034 | 1.0 | 11600 | 9348 | |
2008 | 0.012 | 0.010 | -0.008 | 0.030 | 1.0 | 11560 | 9064 | |
2007 | -0.002 | 0.010 | -0.021 | 0.017 | 1.0 | 10630 | 8049 | |
2006 | -0.000 | 0.009 | -0.018 | 0.018 | 1.0 | 11386 | 8843 | |
2005 | 0.008 | 0.009 | -0.010 | 0.026 | 1.0 | 14429 | 8527 | |
2004 | 0.009 | 0.009 | -0.009 | 0.028 | 1.0 | 11468 | 9210 | |
2003 | 0.007 | 0.009 | -0.011 | 0.025 | 1.0 | 11813 | 8675 | |
2002 | -0.009 | 0.009 | -0.026 | 0.010 | 1.0 | 11330 | 9643 | |
male | 2018 | 0.171 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.203 | 1.0 | 12081 | 8698 |
2017 | 0.170 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 11135 | 7889 | |
2016 | 0.174 | 0.016 | 0.142 | 0.207 | 1.0 | 11233 | 8879 | |
2015 | 0.167 | 0.017 | 0.134 | 0.200 | 1.0 | 11220 | 8949 | |
2014 | 0.138 | 0.017 | 0.104 | 0.170 | 1.0 | 10685 | 9161 | |
2013 | 0.169 | 0.017 | 0.136 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 11261 | 8336 | |
2012 | 0.177 | 0.017 | 0.143 | 0.209 | 1.0 | 9968 | 8683 | |
2011 | 0.148 | 0.017 | 0.115 | 0.181 | 1.0 | 10976 | 8591 | |
2010 | 0.188 | 0.019 | 0.151 | 0.225 | 1.0 | 13088 | 9238 | |
2009 | 0.183 | 0.020 | 0.145 | 0.221 | 1.0 | 11448 | 8924 | |
2008 | 0.155 | 0.020 | 0.116 | 0.194 | 1.0 | 12673 | 9016 | |
2007 | 0.164 | 0.020 | 0.125 | 0.202 | 1.0 | 10811 | 8779 | |
2006 | 0.146 | 0.019 | 0.108 | 0.184 | 1.0 | 12257 | 8727 | |
2005 | 0.145 | 0.019 | 0.108 | 0.183 | 1.0 | 16872 | 9600 | |
2004 | 0.168 | 0.019 | 0.130 | 0.206 | 1.0 | 12085 | 9283 | |
2003 | 0.144 | 0.019 | 0.107 | 0.182 | 1.0 | 13152 | 9230 | |
2002 | 0.153 | 0.019 | 0.116 | 0.191 | 1.0 | 13412 | 9750 | |
sigma | 2018 | 0.979 | 0.006 | 0.968 | 0.991 | 1.0 | 14442 | 9369 |
2017 | 0.982 | 0.006 | 0.971 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 13014 | 8298 | |
2016 | 0.983 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 14319 | 8855 | |
2015 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 15810 | 8843 | |
2014 | 0.987 | 0.006 | 0.975 | 0.999 | 1.0 | 12493 | 8776 | |
2013 | 0.986 | 0.006 | 0.974 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 12853 | 9242 | |
2012 | 0.984 | 0.006 | 0.972 | 0.996 | 1.0 | 14535 | 9003 | |
2011 | 0.985 | 0.006 | 0.974 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 14082 | 9203 | |
2010 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.974 | 1.001 | 1.0 | 15396 | 8926 | |
2009 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 0.999 | 1.0 | 15378 | 9419 | |
2008 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.973 | 1.001 | 1.0 | 14429 | 8890 | |
2007 | 0.989 | 0.007 | 0.976 | 1.003 | 1.0 | 13405 | 9885 | |
2006 | 0.985 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 0.998 | 1.0 | 13470 | 9216 | |
2005 | 0.986 | 0.007 | 0.972 | 1.000 | 1.0 | 18106 | 9150 | |
2004 | 0.983 | 0.007 | 0.970 | 0.997 | 1.0 | 13797 | 8844 | |
2003 | 0.987 | 0.007 | 0.974 | 1.000 | 1.0 | 15662 | 8452 | |
2002 | 0.990 | 0.007 | 0.977 | 1.004 | 1.0 | 15600 | 9265 |
(not run)
Jebb, A.T., Tay, L., Diener, E., Oishi, S., 2018. Happiness, income satiation and turning points around the world. Nature Human Behaviour 2, 33–38.
Kahneman, D., Deaton, A., 2010. High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 107, 16489–16493.