Supplementary material: The increasing cost of happiness

   

1. Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, University of Queensland, QLD, Australia
3. School of Economics, University of Technology, NSW, Australia
4. Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, Germany
5. Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia

 

Corresponding author:
Professor Nick Glozier
Faculty of Medicine and Health,
University of Sydney,
NSW 2050,
Australia
email: nick.glozier@sydney.edu.au

 

Draft: 02 December, 2020
Supplementary tables: 4
Supplementary figures: 3

keywords: Subjective wellbeing, household wealth, HILDA

 

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Supplementary Material

Model Selection (2002-2018)

Figure S1. Linear model evidence (WAIC_linear — WAIC_piecewise)

Figure S1 legend: Differences in posterior evidence (WAIC) for a linear fit over a piecewise fit for satisfaction (blue) and happiness (red). The filled circle indicates the mean of the distribution and the horizontal bars represents the 95% credible interval. A difference greater than zero is support for the linear model and a difference below zero is support for the piecewise model.

Parameter Estimation (2002-2018)

Figure S2. Posterior distributions of ω (95% distribution)

Figure S2 legend: Posterior distribution of the change point parameter representing the location in household income ($) for each year. Horizontal bar represents the 95% credible interval.

Non-linear fits

We tested the relationship between wealth and each wellbeing variable (happiness and satisfaction) using cubic B-spline models. A cubic B-spline was the most complex model (more degrees of freedom), and included here because it has been recently used to describe the maximum point at which wellbeing no longer increases with wealth (i.e., “satiety”, Jebb et al., 2018). Following Jebb et al (2018), we restricted the cubic B-spline model to n = 4, 5 and 6 knots and display wealth on a log scale.

Figure S3. Cubic spline of household wealth on satisfaction and happiness

The cubic B-spline models failed to reveal a complete satiety point (horizontal inflection) in satisfaction before the highest decile in any year. Also note that despite using a log scale, we do not observe a clear, regular logarithmic function with either wellbeing measure. Other researchers have argued that wealth represents a quantitative dimension subject to Weber’s Law of perception (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). Under this view, similar proportional changes in income or wealth produce similar evaluations of satisfaction or happiness, rather than the absolute change. That is, a $100 increase in wealth will produce a greater impact on someone earning a minimum wage than someone earning many orders of magnitude of that amount. However while it is true that wealth clearly represents a quantitative dimension, the effects of wealth observed here represent cross-sectional differences in the population rather than changes experienced by an individual over time. It is not clear the extent to which Weber’s Law applies to cross-sectional or between-subject differences in quantitative dimensions such as wealth.

Change point model parameter estimates

There were df = 59,876 total observations. 4000 samples (post-warmup) were drawn using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

The Bayes R² = 0.03964581 ±0.001497172 (0.03672371-0.04262236)

Coefficient definitions:

alpha is the log value of wealth (x) at the changepoint
b0 is the intercept denoting the expected value of wellbeing (y) at the changepoint
b1 is the linear slope before the changepoint
b2 is the linear slope after the changepoint
b3 is the coefficient of education (graduate)
b4 is the coefficient of age
b5 is the coefficient of age²
b6 is the coefficient of sex (male)

Table S1. Population-level piecewise parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
alpha	2018	-2.550	0.072	-2.702	-2.414	1.0	5285	4903
	2017	-2.658	0.081	-2.818	-2.518	1.0	4465	6452
	2016	-2.739	0.074	-2.868	-2.592	1.0	5050	8132
	2015	-2.672	0.130	-2.929	-2.459	1.0	2974	6083
	2014	-2.859	0.114	-3.033	-2.578	1.0	3223	2934
	2013	-2.702	0.082	-2.866	-2.549	1.0	5309	6893
	2012	-2.762	0.065	-2.881	-2.618	1.0	5677	5541
	2011	-2.935	0.065	-3.061	-2.816	1.0	5569	6696
	2010	-3.003	0.133	-3.244	-2.694	1.0	3646	3220
	2009	-2.681	0.125	-2.935	-2.455	1.0	3866	4806
	2008	-2.828	0.229	-3.036	-2.256	1.0	492	900
	2007	-3.000	0.059	-3.115	-2.881	1.0	6268	7044
	2006	-2.957	0.092	-3.114	-2.758	1.0	5173	4889
	2005	-2.855	0.092	-3.011	-2.653	1.0	4895	5760
	2004	-2.886	0.132	-3.113	-2.568	1.0	3344	2973
	2003	-2.480	0.152	-2.909	-2.237	1.0	3102	1813
	2002	-3.071	0.111	-3.240	-2.798	1.0	4863	2996
b0	2018	0.054	0.029	-0.004	0.111	1.0	5454	6609
	2017	0.026	0.029	-0.029	0.083	1.0	4851	6830
	2016	-0.006	0.026	-0.055	0.047	1.0	5563	7560
	2015	0.022	0.042	-0.059	0.097	1.0	3076	5692
	2014	-0.033	0.033	-0.088	0.044	1.0	3358	3149
	2013	-0.023	0.027	-0.076	0.031	1.0	5414	7121
	2012	-0.015	0.025	-0.063	0.038	1.0	6276	6145
	2011	-0.045	0.024	-0.092	0.003	1.0	5918	6610
	2010	-0.069	0.034	-0.132	0.004	1.0	4067	3840
	2009	0.009	0.042	-0.071	0.093	1.0	4063	6287
	2008	0.009	0.071	-0.068	0.197	1.0	474	863
	2007	0.004	0.024	-0.043	0.051	1.0	6118	7074
	2006	-0.002	0.032	-0.061	0.065	1.0	5698	5918
	2005	0.032	0.034	-0.030	0.103	1.0	4943	5417
	2004	0.017	0.046	-0.060	0.125	1.0	3418	3122
	2003	0.171	0.062	0.019	0.285	1.0	3196	2006
	2002	-0.004	0.030	-0.056	0.061	1.0	5323	3825
b1	2018	0.087	0.007	0.074	0.102	1.0	7843	6371
	2017	0.099	0.010	0.082	0.121	1.0	5575	7150
	2016	0.100	0.010	0.082	0.121	1.0	6864	8801
	2015	0.095	0.014	0.075	0.127	1.0	3296	6224
	2014	0.110	0.016	0.078	0.140	1.0	3766	3456
	2013	0.091	0.010	0.073	0.112	1.0	6951	7408
	2012	0.106	0.010	0.087	0.124	1.0	7044	7992
	2011	0.135	0.013	0.111	0.163	1.0	6912	7902
	2010	0.124	0.022	0.083	0.172	1.0	4164	4209
	2009	0.095	0.013	0.074	0.123	1.0	4734	5944
	2008	0.115	0.022	0.067	0.148	1.0	488	827
	2007	0.143	0.015	0.116	0.173	1.0	7399	7887
	2006	0.125	0.015	0.096	0.156	1.0	6272	7347
	2005	0.115	0.013	0.090	0.140	1.0	6435	6909
	2004	0.111	0.015	0.083	0.141	1.0	4335	4925
	2003	0.078	0.009	0.064	0.100	1.0	4072	2216
	2002	0.109	0.016	0.077	0.141	1.0	5744	4414
b2	2018	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.016	1.0	10148	8900
	2017	0.008	0.003	0.003	0.013	1.0	8680	9355
	2016	0.011	0.003	0.005	0.016	1.0	10571	10209
	2015	0.012	0.004	0.004	0.020	1.0	4368	7387
	2014	0.016	0.003	0.009	0.022	1.0	5780	5649
	2013	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.016	1.0	10356	9483
	2012	0.014	0.003	0.008	0.020	1.0	11364	9038
	2011	0.016	0.003	0.010	0.022	1.0	9840	10296
	2010	0.016	0.003	0.009	0.022	1.0	7157	7083
	2009	0.012	0.004	0.003	0.020	1.0	6197	7584
	2008	0.014	0.005	0.000	0.021	1.0	530	834
	2007	0.009	0.003	0.003	0.014	1.0	12906	9627
	2006	0.020	0.004	0.012	0.028	1.0	9304	8755
	2005	0.014	0.005	0.005	0.023	1.0	7717	7714
	2004	0.022	0.006	0.011	0.033	1.0	5540	5349
	2003	0.012	0.007	-0.002	0.027	1.0	4575	3678
	2002	0.013	0.005	0.004	0.022	1.0	8616	6197
b3	2018	0.073	0.019	0.036	0.110	1.0	10717	7884
	2017	0.071	0.019	0.034	0.109	1.0	9693	7989
	2016	0.074	0.019	0.037	0.110	1.0	10788	8113
	2015	0.065	0.020	0.026	0.104	1.0	8947	8345
	2014	0.049	0.020	0.010	0.088	1.0	9325	8256
	2013	0.077	0.020	0.038	0.116	1.0	10698	8591
	2012	0.063	0.020	0.024	0.102	1.0	10140	8450
	2011	0.065	0.020	0.026	0.105	1.0	9910	8533
	2010	0.053	0.024	0.007	0.100	1.0	10206	8185
	2009	0.042	0.024	-0.006	0.089	1.0	9027	8236
	2008	0.028	0.026	-0.022	0.079	1.0	2244	3756
	2007	0.039	0.025	-0.009	0.088	1.0	10045	8806
	2006	0.054	0.024	0.007	0.101	1.0	10492	8591
	2005	0.073	0.024	0.026	0.121	1.0	11261	8175
	2004	0.046	0.025	-0.004	0.095	1.0	9463	7895
	2003	0.004	0.025	-0.045	0.053	1.0	10237	8979
	2002	0.060	0.025	0.011	0.109	1.0	10752	8542
b4	2018	0.132	0.009	0.115	0.149	1.0	11959	8746
	2017	0.128	0.009	0.110	0.145	1.0	11301	8661
	2016	0.110	0.009	0.093	0.127	1.0	12113	8623
	2015	0.097	0.009	0.080	0.115	1.0	9775	8103
	2014	0.076	0.009	0.058	0.094	1.0	10253	8101
	2013	0.074	0.009	0.056	0.092	1.0	11165	8373
	2012	0.071	0.009	0.053	0.089	1.0	12530	9053
	2011	0.073	0.009	0.055	0.091	1.0	11845	8756
	2010	0.045	0.010	0.025	0.065	1.0	12191	8578
	2009	0.071	0.011	0.049	0.092	1.0	9237	8611
	2008	0.066	0.011	0.044	0.088	1.0	3845	7109
	2007	0.075	0.011	0.054	0.096	1.0	10838	9015
	2006	0.074	0.011	0.053	0.095	1.0	12173	9130
	2005	0.080	0.011	0.059	0.101	1.0	11939	8713
	2004	0.082	0.011	0.061	0.104	1.0	10665	8649
	2003	0.054	0.011	0.033	0.074	1.0	10284	8558
	2002	0.060	0.011	0.039	0.081	1.0	10756	8857
b5	2018	0.016	0.008	-0.001	0.032	1.0	11663	9098
	2017	0.030	0.008	0.014	0.046	1.0	11607	8329
	2016	0.026	0.008	0.010	0.043	1.0	11532	8579
	2015	0.017	0.008	0.001	0.034	1.0	9434	7923
	2014	0.033	0.008	0.016	0.049	1.0	9484	8329
	2013	0.041	0.008	0.025	0.058	1.0	11908	8558
	2012	0.030	0.008	0.014	0.046	1.0	10924	7667
	2011	0.043	0.008	0.027	0.060	1.0	11002	8876
	2010	0.025	0.010	0.007	0.044	1.0	12110	7915
	2009	0.031	0.010	0.013	0.051	1.0	9160	8286
	2008	0.027	0.010	0.008	0.046	1.0	7082	8188
	2007	0.017	0.010	-0.002	0.036	1.0	10199	8608
	2006	0.014	0.009	-0.004	0.032	1.0	12041	8631
	2005	0.022	0.009	0.003	0.040	1.0	12494	9177
	2004	0.021	0.009	0.002	0.039	1.0	10814	8859
	2003	0.013	0.009	-0.005	0.032	1.0	10302	7902
	2002	0.002	0.009	-0.017	0.020	1.0	11163	9103
b6	2018	0.162	0.016	0.130	0.193	1.0	9865	7944
	2017	0.159	0.016	0.127	0.190	1.0	11197	7971
	2016	0.165	0.016	0.133	0.197	1.0	10888	8354
	2015	0.160	0.017	0.127	0.192	1.0	9202	7339
	2014	0.130	0.017	0.098	0.163	1.0	10832	7900
	2013	0.161	0.017	0.128	0.194	1.0	11006	8196
	2012	0.168	0.016	0.136	0.201	1.0	11477	8679
	2011	0.136	0.017	0.104	0.170	1.0	9964	8329
	2010	0.180	0.019	0.142	0.218	1.0	10765	8249
	2009	0.172	0.020	0.134	0.210	1.0	9957	8526
	2008	0.145	0.020	0.106	0.185	1.0	8505	7925
	2007	0.151	0.020	0.112	0.189	1.0	10416	9283
	2006	0.136	0.019	0.099	0.173	1.0	11964	9168
	2005	0.138	0.020	0.100	0.177	1.0	11581	8240
	2004	0.160	0.020	0.122	0.199	1.0	10611	8103
	2003	0.139	0.019	0.100	0.177	1.0	10127	8282
	2002	0.147	0.019	0.109	0.185	1.0	9774	8327
sigma	2018	0.974	0.006	0.963	0.986	1.0	14363	7948
	2017	0.976	0.006	0.965	0.987	1.0	13600	8942
	2016	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.990	1.0	13047	8290
	2015	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	10722	7072
	2014	0.983	0.006	0.971	0.995	1.0	13804	7918
	2013	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.994	1.0	13098	8423
	2012	0.980	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	13793	8555
	2011	0.980	0.006	0.968	0.992	1.0	13602	8017
	2010	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	14103	7706
	2009	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.995	1.0	12494	8176
	2008	0.982	0.007	0.969	0.996	1.0	9984	8065
	2007	0.982	0.007	0.969	0.996	1.0	14007	9162
	2006	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.995	1.0	13423	8497
	2005	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.995	1.0	15259	8598
	2004	0.980	0.007	0.967	0.994	1.0	13331	8391
	2003	0.985	0.007	0.971	0.998	1.0	10878	8060
	2002	0.988	0.007	0.974	1.001	1.0	12558	8578

Table S2. Population-level linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
Intercept	2018	-0.316	0.019	-0.353	-0.277	1.0	14006	10228
	2017	-0.291	0.019	-0.329	-0.253	1.0	13073	10321
	2016	-0.306	0.019	-0.344	-0.268	1.0	14068	10370
	2015	-0.313	0.020	-0.353	-0.274	1.0	13763	10488
	2014	-0.297	0.020	-0.335	-0.258	1.0	14018	10053
	2013	-0.312	0.020	-0.351	-0.272	1.0	15651	10085
	2012	-0.334	0.020	-0.374	-0.294	1.0	15044	9419
	2011	-0.329	0.020	-0.368	-0.288	1.0	15264	10032
	2010	-0.293	0.023	-0.338	-0.250	1.0	15413	10151
	2009	-0.322	0.023	-0.368	-0.276	1.0	15612	10143
	2008	-0.286	0.023	-0.332	-0.242	1.0	14927	10486
	2007	-0.234	0.022	-0.278	-0.192	1.0	14104	10340
	2006	-0.300	0.023	-0.344	-0.255	1.0	14512	9458
	2005	-0.304	0.023	-0.350	-0.258	1.0	18269	9269
	2004	-0.337	0.023	-0.383	-0.291	1.0	16123	9961
	2003	-0.300	0.023	-0.345	-0.255	1.0	14964	10083
	2002	-0.237	0.022	-0.280	-0.193	1.0	15569	9592
dollars	2018	0.033	0.002	0.029	0.037	1.0	19127	9998
	2017	0.027	0.002	0.024	0.031	1.0	18387	10060
	2016	0.030	0.002	0.026	0.034	1.0	19864	10204
	2015	0.034	0.002	0.029	0.038	1.0	20147	10087
	2014	0.031	0.002	0.027	0.035	1.0	20813	9558
	2013	0.029	0.002	0.025	0.033	1.0	20564	9776
	2012	0.035	0.002	0.031	0.040	1.0	19263	9816
	2011	0.035	0.002	0.030	0.039	1.0	18440	9290
	2010	0.030	0.002	0.025	0.034	1.0	19683	10210
	2009	0.034	0.003	0.029	0.039	1.0	19411	10133
	2008	0.032	0.002	0.027	0.037	1.0	19275	10239
	2007	0.025	0.002	0.021	0.030	1.0	20606	9870
	2006	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.045	1.0	20396	10117
	2005	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.046	1.0	22024	9664
	2004	0.048	0.003	0.041	0.054	1.0	19019	9389
	2003	0.046	0.003	0.039	0.052	1.0	17897	9692
	2002	0.033	0.003	0.027	0.039	1.0	19647	9792
grad	2018	0.103	0.019	0.066	0.140	1.0	11657	8807
	2017	0.108	0.019	0.071	0.145	1.0	10077	8584
	2016	0.098	0.019	0.061	0.136	1.0	9644	8660
	2015	0.086	0.020	0.048	0.124	1.0	11031	8890
	2014	0.068	0.020	0.029	0.105	1.0	11203	8900
	2013	0.097	0.020	0.058	0.136	1.0	12095	8973
	2012	0.078	0.020	0.039	0.118	1.0	10996	9294
	2011	0.079	0.020	0.039	0.119	1.0	12104	8737
	2010	0.064	0.023	0.018	0.110	1.0	12782	8831
	2009	0.064	0.024	0.017	0.111	1.0	12111	8978
	2008	0.054	0.025	0.006	0.103	1.0	12808	8695
	2007	0.067	0.024	0.020	0.114	1.0	10230	8570
	2006	0.071	0.024	0.024	0.118	1.0	11556	9107
	2005	0.096	0.025	0.047	0.145	1.0	15613	9054
	2004	0.060	0.025	0.011	0.108	1.0	10952	9517
	2003	0.027	0.025	-0.022	0.076	1.0	11297	9208
	2002	0.069	0.025	0.021	0.118	1.0	12773	8684
age	2018	0.115	0.009	0.098	0.132	1.0	11227	9635
	2017	0.106	0.009	0.090	0.123	1.0	11325	8997
	2016	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	12091	8374
	2015	0.082	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	10567	8693
	2014	0.058	0.009	0.040	0.076	1.0	10989	8467
	2013	0.056	0.009	0.038	0.074	1.0	12008	9546
	2012	0.049	0.009	0.032	0.067	1.0	11331	9625
	2011	0.050	0.009	0.032	0.068	1.0	13077	9763
	2010	0.027	0.010	0.006	0.047	1.0	10760	8808
	2009	0.047	0.011	0.026	0.068	1.0	10922	8987
	2008	0.041	0.011	0.021	0.062	1.0	12210	9086
	2007	0.048	0.011	0.028	0.068	1.0	12197	10017
	2006	0.054	0.010	0.033	0.074	1.0	11566	9238
	2005	0.059	0.011	0.038	0.080	1.0	14325	9516
	2004	0.066	0.011	0.045	0.087	1.0	11391	9310
	2003	0.043	0.011	0.022	0.064	1.0	12258	9349
	2002	0.045	0.011	0.024	0.066	1.0	11233	8473
age_sq	2018	-0.001	0.008	-0.017	0.015	1.0	11109	8882
	2017	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10722	8526
	2016	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10926	8888
	2015	0.002	0.008	-0.014	0.018	1.0	10702	8938
	2014	0.018	0.008	0.002	0.034	1.0	10944	8950
	2013	0.026	0.008	0.009	0.042	1.0	11501	9677
	2012	0.014	0.008	-0.003	0.030	1.0	11191	8770
	2011	0.025	0.008	0.009	0.041	1.0	12111	9170
	2010	0.011	0.009	-0.007	0.029	1.0	11752	9509
	2009	0.016	0.009	-0.003	0.034	1.0	11600	9348
	2008	0.012	0.010	-0.008	0.030	1.0	11560	9064
	2007	-0.002	0.010	-0.021	0.017	1.0	10630	8049
	2006	-0.000	0.009	-0.018	0.018	1.0	11386	8843
	2005	0.008	0.009	-0.010	0.026	1.0	14429	8527
	2004	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.028	1.0	11468	9210
	2003	0.007	0.009	-0.011	0.025	1.0	11813	8675
	2002	-0.009	0.009	-0.026	0.010	1.0	11330	9643
male	2018	0.171	0.016	0.138	0.203	1.0	12081	8698
	2017	0.170	0.016	0.138	0.202	1.0	11135	7889
	2016	0.174	0.016	0.142	0.207	1.0	11233	8879
	2015	0.167	0.017	0.134	0.200	1.0	11220	8949
	2014	0.138	0.017	0.104	0.170	1.0	10685	9161
	2013	0.169	0.017	0.136	0.202	1.0	11261	8336
	2012	0.177	0.017	0.143	0.209	1.0	9968	8683
	2011	0.148	0.017	0.115	0.181	1.0	10976	8591
	2010	0.188	0.019	0.151	0.225	1.0	13088	9238
	2009	0.183	0.020	0.145	0.221	1.0	11448	8924
	2008	0.155	0.020	0.116	0.194	1.0	12673	9016
	2007	0.164	0.020	0.125	0.202	1.0	10811	8779
	2006	0.146	0.019	0.108	0.184	1.0	12257	8727
	2005	0.145	0.019	0.108	0.183	1.0	16872	9600
	2004	0.168	0.019	0.130	0.206	1.0	12085	9283
	2003	0.144	0.019	0.107	0.182	1.0	13152	9230
	2002	0.153	0.019	0.116	0.191	1.0	13412	9750
sigma	2018	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	14442	9369
	2017	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13014	8298
	2016	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	14319	8855
	2015	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	15810	8843
	2014	0.987	0.006	0.975	0.999	1.0	12493	8776
	2013	0.986	0.006	0.974	0.998	1.0	12853	9242
	2012	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.996	1.0	14535	9003
	2011	0.985	0.006	0.974	0.997	1.0	14082	9203
	2010	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.001	1.0	15396	8926
	2009	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.999	1.0	15378	9419
	2008	0.987	0.007	0.973	1.001	1.0	14429	8890
	2007	0.989	0.007	0.976	1.003	1.0	13405	9885
	2006	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.998	1.0	13470	9216
	2005	0.986	0.007	0.972	1.000	1.0	18106	9150
	2004	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	13797	8844
	2003	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.000	1.0	15662	8452
	2002	0.990	0.007	0.977	1.004	1.0	15600	9265

Table S3. Population-level piecewise parameter estimates for satisfaction

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
alpha	2018	-3.009	0.087	-3.159	-2.825	1.0	5796	6401
	2017	-2.591	0.128	-2.835	-2.371	1.0	3522	7302
	2016	-2.848	0.120	-3.052	-2.557	1.0	2882	2724
	2015	-2.543	0.148	-3.034	-2.355	1.0	2345	752
	2014	-2.419	0.073	-2.587	-2.287	1.0	6196	3543
	2013	-2.809	0.077	-2.946	-2.647	1.0	5706	6100
	2012	-2.744	0.060	-2.854	-2.617	1.0	6608	5786
	2011	-3.052	0.110	-3.245	-2.839	1.0	3674	8091
	2010	-2.097	0.165	-2.471	-1.816	1.0	5211	4410
	2009	-2.933	0.206	-3.259	-2.539	1.0	2544	6140
	2008	-2.291	0.217	-2.743	-1.826	1.0	3370	2947
	2007	-2.762	0.172	-3.062	-2.325	1.0	3736	2942
	2006	0.150	2.619	-3.305	5.689	1.5	7	122
	2005	-2.225	0.324	-2.795	-1.513	1.0	2470	2825
	2004	-3.107	0.378	-3.564	-2.223	1.0	1913	3248
	2003	-2.646	0.190	-2.983	-2.256	1.0	4233	5396
	2002	-3.038	0.295	-3.530	-2.380	1.0	3088	3259
b0	2018	-0.068	0.025	-0.114	-0.018	1.0	6309	7242
	2017	0.056	0.038	-0.015	0.128	1.0	3505	6850
	2016	-0.036	0.032	-0.092	0.038	1.0	2962	2360
	2015	0.031	0.042	-0.087	0.096	1.0	2239	795
	2014	0.094	0.028	0.035	0.148	1.0	5861	4248
	2013	-0.014	0.024	-0.059	0.035	1.0	6436	6114
	2012	-0.016	0.022	-0.059	0.030	1.0	6943	6921
	2011	-0.058	0.028	-0.109	-0.002	1.0	3975	6762
	2010	0.129	0.056	0.015	0.237	1.0	5496	5272
	2009	-0.031	0.043	-0.101	0.059	1.0	2400	6255
	2008	0.122	0.068	0.001	0.271	1.0	3384	2988
	2007	0.074	0.041	0.007	0.177	1.0	3712	3056
	2006	1.126	0.944	-0.073	2.599	1.5	7	91
	2005	0.217	0.125	0.040	0.521	1.0	2533	2776
	2004	0.033	0.084	-0.065	0.249	1.0	1917	3027
	2003	0.134	0.057	0.039	0.258	1.0	4440	5418
	2002	0.027	0.060	-0.067	0.170	1.0	3120	3468
b1	2018	0.115	0.015	0.087	0.145	1.0	6905	8168
	2017	0.077	0.010	0.061	0.100	1.0	4224	6443
	2016	0.098	0.014	0.070	0.128	1.0	3495	3178
	2015	0.070	0.012	0.056	0.106	1.0	2591	811
	2014	0.064	0.005	0.055	0.075	1.0	8802	6392
	2013	0.088	0.009	0.070	0.107	1.0	7204	7706
	2012	0.087	0.008	0.072	0.102	1.0	8564	7777
	2011	0.124	0.018	0.092	0.162	1.0	4164	7290
	2010	0.043	0.005	0.034	0.054	1.0	7594	6355
	2009	0.089	0.020	0.058	0.128	1.0	2771	7262
	2008	0.050	0.007	0.038	0.067	1.0	4919	4199
	2007	0.077	0.014	0.051	0.105	1.0	4578	4413
	2006	0.033	0.023	0.021	0.074	1.3	9	101
	2005	0.050	0.007	0.038	0.065	1.0	4076	4885
	2004	0.099	0.034	0.049	0.167	1.0	2046	4384
	2003	0.067	0.010	0.050	0.088	1.0	5513	6127
	2002	0.086	0.026	0.049	0.149	1.0	3470	5376
b2	2018	0.018	0.003	0.013	0.023	1.0	11457	9423
	2017	0.009	0.003	0.003	0.015	1.0	6091	7618
	2016	0.014	0.003	0.007	0.019	1.0	5105	4907
	2015	0.012	0.004	0.005	0.021	1.0	2956	1315
	2014	0.010	0.003	0.004	0.016	1.0	9955	7475
	2013	0.015	0.003	0.009	0.020	1.0	10976	8677
	2012	0.012	0.003	0.006	0.018	1.0	13160	9581
	2011	0.017	0.003	0.011	0.022	1.0	7133	8981
	2010	0.002	0.005	-0.008	0.012	1.0	7857	7330
	2009	0.014	0.004	0.006	0.021	1.0	4111	7159
	2008	0.007	0.005	-0.003	0.016	1.0	5080	4397
	2007	0.008	0.003	0.001	0.014	1.0	5986	6240
	2006	0.005	2.257	-5.187	5.088	1.4	1698	406
	2005	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.023	1.0	3654	3400
	2004	0.022	0.007	0.005	0.032	1.0	2627	3807
	2003	0.012	0.007	-0.003	0.024	1.0	6270	6729
	2002	0.018	0.006	0.005	0.028	1.0	4458	4674
b3	2018	0.009	0.018	-0.027	0.045	1.0	10675	8368
	2017	-0.012	0.019	-0.049	0.025	1.0	7633	7876
	2016	0.008	0.018	-0.028	0.044	1.0	8625	7399
	2015	-0.009	0.019	-0.046	0.029	1.0	8874	8246
	2014	-0.017	0.019	-0.054	0.019	1.0	10781	8711
	2013	-0.037	0.019	-0.073	0.000	1.0	10542	8903
	2012	-0.009	0.019	-0.047	0.029	1.0	9819	8157
	2011	-0.011	0.019	-0.049	0.026	1.0	10814	8505
	2010	-0.021	0.023	-0.065	0.024	1.0	9141	8602
	2009	-0.013	0.023	-0.057	0.032	1.0	7964	8206
	2008	-0.043	0.023	-0.089	0.003	1.0	10047	8705
	2007	-0.078	0.024	-0.125	-0.031	1.0	8492	8387
	2006	-0.036	0.024	-0.083	0.011	1.0	145	5732
	2005	-0.083	0.024	-0.130	-0.036	1.0	8653	7735
	2004	-0.082	0.024	-0.130	-0.033	1.0	6691	7545
	2003	-0.109	0.024	-0.158	-0.062	1.0	10328	8628
	2002	-0.085	0.025	-0.132	-0.037	1.0	9829	7970
b4	2018	0.070	0.008	0.053	0.086	1.0	11685	8285
	2017	0.061	0.008	0.044	0.077	1.0	9594	8649
	2016	0.070	0.008	0.053	0.086	1.0	9173	9239
	2015	0.055	0.008	0.038	0.071	1.0	10474	8393
	2014	0.066	0.008	0.050	0.083	1.0	12341	8631
	2013	0.077	0.008	0.060	0.094	1.0	9937	8223
	2012	0.065	0.008	0.048	0.081	1.0	10424	8336
	2011	0.060	0.009	0.043	0.077	1.0	10762	8558
	2010	0.051	0.010	0.033	0.070	1.0	10826	7560
	2009	0.086	0.010	0.067	0.106	1.0	10700	8548
	2008	0.087	0.010	0.068	0.106	1.0	10667	9292
	2007	0.106	0.010	0.087	0.126	1.0	9486	7714
	2006	0.109	0.010	0.090	0.130	1.0	100	5090
	2005	0.121	0.010	0.102	0.141	1.0	9190	8563
	2004	0.128	0.010	0.108	0.148	1.0	9179	8503
	2003	0.123	0.010	0.103	0.143	1.0	10191	8337
	2002	0.129	0.010	0.109	0.149	1.0	10190	8747
b5	2018	0.134	0.008	0.119	0.150	1.0	11021	8946
	2017	0.118	0.008	0.103	0.133	1.0	8717	8302
	2016	0.130	0.008	0.114	0.145	1.0	9345	8519
	2015	0.131	0.008	0.116	0.146	1.0	11314	8777
	2014	0.129	0.008	0.115	0.144	1.0	12129	8086
	2013	0.130	0.008	0.115	0.145	1.0	11579	8894
	2012	0.141	0.008	0.126	0.156	1.0	10954	8394
	2011	0.135	0.008	0.120	0.150	1.0	9739	8752
	2010	0.123	0.009	0.107	0.140	1.0	10126	8895
	2009	0.111	0.009	0.094	0.128	1.0	9536	8098
	2008	0.109	0.009	0.092	0.126	1.0	10640	8690
	2007	0.081	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	9577	8634
	2006	0.084	0.009	0.067	0.101	1.0	216	6141
	2005	0.092	0.009	0.076	0.110	1.0	9211	8415
	2004	0.081	0.009	0.064	0.098	1.0	8662	7884
	2003	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	10073	8832
	2002	0.081	0.008	0.065	0.098	1.0	10453	9043
b6	2018	-0.063	0.016	-0.094	-0.032	1.0	10751	8041
	2017	-0.059	0.016	-0.089	-0.027	1.0	8916	8293
	2016	-0.035	0.016	-0.066	-0.004	1.0	8853	8230
	2015	-0.039	0.016	-0.070	-0.008	1.0	9617	7984
	2014	-0.099	0.016	-0.129	-0.067	1.0	11675	8109
	2013	-0.061	0.016	-0.093	-0.030	1.0	10075	8441
	2012	-0.045	0.016	-0.077	-0.013	1.0	9777	8853
	2011	-0.069	0.016	-0.100	-0.038	1.0	11111	8662
	2010	-0.044	0.018	-0.079	-0.009	1.0	9624	7946
	2009	-0.054	0.018	-0.089	-0.018	1.0	9452	8027
	2008	-0.061	0.019	-0.098	-0.025	1.0	10248	7732
	2007	-0.071	0.019	-0.108	-0.034	1.0	9126	8451
	2006	-0.066	0.018	-0.103	-0.030	1.0	6185	6126
	2005	-0.094	0.019	-0.130	-0.057	1.0	9648	8018
	2004	-0.106	0.019	-0.142	-0.070	1.0	8243	7566
	2003	-0.104	0.018	-0.140	-0.068	1.0	10116	7952
	2002	-0.061	0.018	-0.097	-0.025	1.0	10694	7985
sigma	2018	0.981	0.005	0.970	0.991	1.0	14252	8298
	2017	0.984	0.006	0.973	0.995	1.0	10967	8445
	2016	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13353	9321
	2015	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.993	1.0	13255	8527
	2014	0.980	0.005	0.970	0.991	1.0	14400	8809
	2013	0.981	0.006	0.970	0.992	1.0	13524	8950
	2012	0.981	0.006	0.970	0.992	1.0	13467	8290
	2011	0.981	0.006	0.971	0.992	1.0	13995	8536
	2010	0.986	0.006	0.973	0.998	1.0	10911	8138
	2009	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.997	1.0	12041	7619
	2008	0.984	0.007	0.971	0.997	1.0	12117	8265
	2007	0.985	0.007	0.973	0.998	1.0	11081	8287
	2006	0.985	0.006	0.972	0.998	1.0	8021	7397
	2005	0.981	0.006	0.968	0.994	1.0	10740	8300
	2004	0.981	0.007	0.968	0.994	1.0	10144	8388
	2003	0.980	0.006	0.967	0.993	1.0	12774	8366
	2002	0.982	0.006	0.970	0.995	1.0	11710	8077

Table S4. Population-level linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter	Year	Estimate	Est.Error	l-95% CI	u-95% CI	Rhat	Bulk_ESS	Tail_ESS
Intercept	2018	-0.316	0.019	-0.353	-0.277	1.0	14006	10228
	2017	-0.291	0.019	-0.329	-0.253	1.0	13073	10321
	2016	-0.306	0.019	-0.344	-0.268	1.0	14068	10370
	2015	-0.313	0.020	-0.353	-0.274	1.0	13763	10488
	2014	-0.297	0.020	-0.335	-0.258	1.0	14018	10053
	2013	-0.312	0.020	-0.351	-0.272	1.0	15651	10085
	2012	-0.334	0.020	-0.374	-0.294	1.0	15044	9419
	2011	-0.329	0.020	-0.368	-0.288	1.0	15264	10032
	2010	-0.293	0.023	-0.338	-0.250	1.0	15413	10151
	2009	-0.322	0.023	-0.368	-0.276	1.0	15612	10143
	2008	-0.286	0.023	-0.332	-0.242	1.0	14927	10486
	2007	-0.234	0.022	-0.278	-0.192	1.0	14104	10340
	2006	-0.300	0.023	-0.344	-0.255	1.0	14512	9458
	2005	-0.304	0.023	-0.350	-0.258	1.0	18269	9269
	2004	-0.337	0.023	-0.383	-0.291	1.0	16123	9961
	2003	-0.300	0.023	-0.345	-0.255	1.0	14964	10083
	2002	-0.237	0.022	-0.280	-0.193	1.0	15569	9592
dollars	2018	0.033	0.002	0.029	0.037	1.0	19127	9998
	2017	0.027	0.002	0.024	0.031	1.0	18387	10060
	2016	0.030	0.002	0.026	0.034	1.0	19864	10204
	2015	0.034	0.002	0.029	0.038	1.0	20147	10087
	2014	0.031	0.002	0.027	0.035	1.0	20813	9558
	2013	0.029	0.002	0.025	0.033	1.0	20564	9776
	2012	0.035	0.002	0.031	0.040	1.0	19263	9816
	2011	0.035	0.002	0.030	0.039	1.0	18440	9290
	2010	0.030	0.002	0.025	0.034	1.0	19683	10210
	2009	0.034	0.003	0.029	0.039	1.0	19411	10133
	2008	0.032	0.002	0.027	0.037	1.0	19275	10239
	2007	0.025	0.002	0.021	0.030	1.0	20606	9870
	2006	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.045	1.0	20396	10117
	2005	0.040	0.003	0.034	0.046	1.0	22024	9664
	2004	0.048	0.003	0.041	0.054	1.0	19019	9389
	2003	0.046	0.003	0.039	0.052	1.0	17897	9692
	2002	0.033	0.003	0.027	0.039	1.0	19647	9792
grad	2018	0.103	0.019	0.066	0.140	1.0	11657	8807
	2017	0.108	0.019	0.071	0.145	1.0	10077	8584
	2016	0.098	0.019	0.061	0.136	1.0	9644	8660
	2015	0.086	0.020	0.048	0.124	1.0	11031	8890
	2014	0.068	0.020	0.029	0.105	1.0	11203	8900
	2013	0.097	0.020	0.058	0.136	1.0	12095	8973
	2012	0.078	0.020	0.039	0.118	1.0	10996	9294
	2011	0.079	0.020	0.039	0.119	1.0	12104	8737
	2010	0.064	0.023	0.018	0.110	1.0	12782	8831
	2009	0.064	0.024	0.017	0.111	1.0	12111	8978
	2008	0.054	0.025	0.006	0.103	1.0	12808	8695
	2007	0.067	0.024	0.020	0.114	1.0	10230	8570
	2006	0.071	0.024	0.024	0.118	1.0	11556	9107
	2005	0.096	0.025	0.047	0.145	1.0	15613	9054
	2004	0.060	0.025	0.011	0.108	1.0	10952	9517
	2003	0.027	0.025	-0.022	0.076	1.0	11297	9208
	2002	0.069	0.025	0.021	0.118	1.0	12773	8684
age	2018	0.115	0.009	0.098	0.132	1.0	11227	9635
	2017	0.106	0.009	0.090	0.123	1.0	11325	8997
	2016	0.091	0.009	0.075	0.108	1.0	12091	8374
	2015	0.082	0.009	0.064	0.099	1.0	10567	8693
	2014	0.058	0.009	0.040	0.076	1.0	10989	8467
	2013	0.056	0.009	0.038	0.074	1.0	12008	9546
	2012	0.049	0.009	0.032	0.067	1.0	11331	9625
	2011	0.050	0.009	0.032	0.068	1.0	13077	9763
	2010	0.027	0.010	0.006	0.047	1.0	10760	8808
	2009	0.047	0.011	0.026	0.068	1.0	10922	8987
	2008	0.041	0.011	0.021	0.062	1.0	12210	9086
	2007	0.048	0.011	0.028	0.068	1.0	12197	10017
	2006	0.054	0.010	0.033	0.074	1.0	11566	9238
	2005	0.059	0.011	0.038	0.080	1.0	14325	9516
	2004	0.066	0.011	0.045	0.087	1.0	11391	9310
	2003	0.043	0.011	0.022	0.064	1.0	12258	9349
	2002	0.045	0.011	0.024	0.066	1.0	11233	8473
age_sq	2018	-0.001	0.008	-0.017	0.015	1.0	11109	8882
	2017	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10722	8526
	2016	0.010	0.008	-0.006	0.026	1.0	10926	8888
	2015	0.002	0.008	-0.014	0.018	1.0	10702	8938
	2014	0.018	0.008	0.002	0.034	1.0	10944	8950
	2013	0.026	0.008	0.009	0.042	1.0	11501	9677
	2012	0.014	0.008	-0.003	0.030	1.0	11191	8770
	2011	0.025	0.008	0.009	0.041	1.0	12111	9170
	2010	0.011	0.009	-0.007	0.029	1.0	11752	9509
	2009	0.016	0.009	-0.003	0.034	1.0	11600	9348
	2008	0.012	0.010	-0.008	0.030	1.0	11560	9064
	2007	-0.002	0.010	-0.021	0.017	1.0	10630	8049
	2006	-0.000	0.009	-0.018	0.018	1.0	11386	8843
	2005	0.008	0.009	-0.010	0.026	1.0	14429	8527
	2004	0.009	0.009	-0.009	0.028	1.0	11468	9210
	2003	0.007	0.009	-0.011	0.025	1.0	11813	8675
	2002	-0.009	0.009	-0.026	0.010	1.0	11330	9643
male	2018	0.171	0.016	0.138	0.203	1.0	12081	8698
	2017	0.170	0.016	0.138	0.202	1.0	11135	7889
	2016	0.174	0.016	0.142	0.207	1.0	11233	8879
	2015	0.167	0.017	0.134	0.200	1.0	11220	8949
	2014	0.138	0.017	0.104	0.170	1.0	10685	9161
	2013	0.169	0.017	0.136	0.202	1.0	11261	8336
	2012	0.177	0.017	0.143	0.209	1.0	9968	8683
	2011	0.148	0.017	0.115	0.181	1.0	10976	8591
	2010	0.188	0.019	0.151	0.225	1.0	13088	9238
	2009	0.183	0.020	0.145	0.221	1.0	11448	8924
	2008	0.155	0.020	0.116	0.194	1.0	12673	9016
	2007	0.164	0.020	0.125	0.202	1.0	10811	8779
	2006	0.146	0.019	0.108	0.184	1.0	12257	8727
	2005	0.145	0.019	0.108	0.183	1.0	16872	9600
	2004	0.168	0.019	0.130	0.206	1.0	12085	9283
	2003	0.144	0.019	0.107	0.182	1.0	13152	9230
	2002	0.153	0.019	0.116	0.191	1.0	13412	9750
sigma	2018	0.979	0.006	0.968	0.991	1.0	14442	9369
	2017	0.982	0.006	0.971	0.993	1.0	13014	8298
	2016	0.983	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	14319	8855
	2015	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.995	1.0	15810	8843
	2014	0.987	0.006	0.975	0.999	1.0	12493	8776
	2013	0.986	0.006	0.974	0.998	1.0	12853	9242
	2012	0.984	0.006	0.972	0.996	1.0	14535	9003
	2011	0.985	0.006	0.974	0.997	1.0	14082	9203
	2010	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.001	1.0	15396	8926
	2009	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.999	1.0	15378	9419
	2008	0.987	0.007	0.973	1.001	1.0	14429	8890
	2007	0.989	0.007	0.976	1.003	1.0	13405	9885
	2006	0.985	0.007	0.972	0.998	1.0	13470	9216
	2005	0.986	0.007	0.972	1.000	1.0	18106	9150
	2004	0.983	0.007	0.970	0.997	1.0	13797	8844
	2003	0.987	0.007	0.974	1.000	1.0	15662	8452
	2002	0.990	0.007	0.977	1.004	1.0	15600	9265

Figure S5. Posterior predictive distribution of marginal effect of wealth by year (95% CI)

(not run)

References

Jebb, A.T., Tay, L., Diener, E., Oishi, S., 2018. Happiness, income satiation and turning points around the world. Nature Human Behaviour 2, 33–38.

Kahneman, D., Deaton, A., 2010. High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 107, 16489–16493.