1. Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, University of Queensland, QLD, Australia
  3. School of Economics, University of Technology, NSW, Australia
  4. Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, Germany
  5. Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia

 

Corresponding author:
Professor Nick Glozier
Faculty of Medicine and Health,
University of Sydney,
NSW 2050,
Australia
email:

 

Draft: 02 December, 2020
Supplementary tables: 4
Supplementary figures: 3

keywords: Subjective wellbeing, household wealth, HILDA

 


Supplementary Material

Model Selection (2002-2018)

Figure S1. Linear model evidence (WAIClinear — WAICpiecewise)

Figure S1 legend: Differences in posterior evidence (WAIC) for a linear fit over a piecewise fit for satisfaction (blue) and happiness (red). The filled circle indicates the mean of the distribution and the horizontal bars represents the 95% credible interval. A difference greater than zero is support for the linear model and a difference below zero is support for the piecewise model.



Parameter Estimation (2002-2018)

Figure S2. Posterior distributions of ω (95% distribution)

Figure S2 legend: Posterior distribution of the change point parameter representing the location in household income ($) for each year. Horizontal bar represents the 95% credible interval.


Non-linear fits

We tested the relationship between wealth and each wellbeing variable (happiness and satisfaction) using cubic B-spline models. A cubic B-spline was the most complex model (more degrees of freedom), and included here because it has been recently used to describe the maximum point at which wellbeing no longer increases with wealth (i.e., “satiety”, Jebb et al., 2018). Following Jebb et al (2018), we restricted the cubic B-spline model to n = 4, 5 and 6 knots and display wealth on a log scale.


Figure S3. Cubic spline of household wealth on satisfaction and happiness


The cubic B-spline models failed to reveal a complete satiety point (horizontal inflection) in satisfaction before the highest decile in any year. Also note that despite using a log scale, we do not observe a clear, regular logarithmic function with either wellbeing measure. Other researchers have argued that wealth represents a quantitative dimension subject to Weber’s Law of perception (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). Under this view, similar proportional changes in income or wealth produce similar evaluations of satisfaction or happiness, rather than the absolute change. That is, a $100 increase in wealth will produce a greater impact on someone earning a minimum wage than someone earning many orders of magnitude of that amount. However while it is true that wealth clearly represents a quantitative dimension, the effects of wealth observed here represent cross-sectional differences in the population rather than changes experienced by an individual over time. It is not clear the extent to which Weber’s Law applies to cross-sectional or between-subject differences in quantitative dimensions such as wealth.


Change point model parameter estimates

There were df = 59,876 total observations. 4000 samples (post-warmup) were drawn using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

The Bayes R2 = 0.03964581 ±0.001497172 (0.03672371-0.04262236)


Coefficient definitions:

alpha is the log value of wealth (x) at the changepoint
b0 is the intercept denoting the expected value of wellbeing (y) at the changepoint
b1 is the linear slope before the changepoint
b2 is the linear slope after the changepoint
b3 is the coefficient of education (graduate)
b4 is the coefficient of age
b5 is the coefficient of age2
b6 is the coefficient of sex (male)


Table S1. Population-level piecewise parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter

Year

Estimate

Est.Error

l-95% CI

u-95% CI

Rhat

Bulk_ESS

Tail_ESS

alpha

2018

-2.550

0.072

-2.702

-2.414

1.0

5285

4903

2017

-2.658

0.081

-2.818

-2.518

1.0

4465

6452

2016

-2.739

0.074

-2.868

-2.592

1.0

5050

8132

2015

-2.672

0.130

-2.929

-2.459

1.0

2974

6083

2014

-2.859

0.114

-3.033

-2.578

1.0

3223

2934

2013

-2.702

0.082

-2.866

-2.549

1.0

5309

6893

2012

-2.762

0.065

-2.881

-2.618

1.0

5677

5541

2011

-2.935

0.065

-3.061

-2.816

1.0

5569

6696

2010

-3.003

0.133

-3.244

-2.694

1.0

3646

3220

2009

-2.681

0.125

-2.935

-2.455

1.0

3866

4806

2008

-2.828

0.229

-3.036

-2.256

1.0

492

900

2007

-3.000

0.059

-3.115

-2.881

1.0

6268

7044

2006

-2.957

0.092

-3.114

-2.758

1.0

5173

4889

2005

-2.855

0.092

-3.011

-2.653

1.0

4895

5760

2004

-2.886

0.132

-3.113

-2.568

1.0

3344

2973

2003

-2.480

0.152

-2.909

-2.237

1.0

3102

1813

2002

-3.071

0.111

-3.240

-2.798

1.0

4863

2996

b0

2018

0.054

0.029

-0.004

0.111

1.0

5454

6609

2017

0.026

0.029

-0.029

0.083

1.0

4851

6830

2016

-0.006

0.026

-0.055

0.047

1.0

5563

7560

2015

0.022

0.042

-0.059

0.097

1.0

3076

5692

2014

-0.033

0.033

-0.088

0.044

1.0

3358

3149

2013

-0.023

0.027

-0.076

0.031

1.0

5414

7121

2012

-0.015

0.025

-0.063

0.038

1.0

6276

6145

2011

-0.045

0.024

-0.092

0.003

1.0

5918

6610

2010

-0.069

0.034

-0.132

0.004

1.0

4067

3840

2009

0.009

0.042

-0.071

0.093

1.0

4063

6287

2008

0.009

0.071

-0.068

0.197

1.0

474

863

2007

0.004

0.024

-0.043

0.051

1.0

6118

7074

2006

-0.002

0.032

-0.061

0.065

1.0

5698

5918

2005

0.032

0.034

-0.030

0.103

1.0

4943

5417

2004

0.017

0.046

-0.060

0.125

1.0

3418

3122

2003

0.171

0.062

0.019

0.285

1.0

3196

2006

2002

-0.004

0.030

-0.056

0.061

1.0

5323

3825

b1

2018

0.087

0.007

0.074

0.102

1.0

7843

6371

2017

0.099

0.010

0.082

0.121

1.0

5575

7150

2016

0.100

0.010

0.082

0.121

1.0

6864

8801

2015

0.095

0.014

0.075

0.127

1.0

3296

6224

2014

0.110

0.016

0.078

0.140

1.0

3766

3456

2013

0.091

0.010

0.073

0.112

1.0

6951

7408

2012

0.106

0.010

0.087

0.124

1.0

7044

7992

2011

0.135

0.013

0.111

0.163

1.0

6912

7902

2010

0.124

0.022

0.083

0.172

1.0

4164

4209

2009

0.095

0.013

0.074

0.123

1.0

4734

5944

2008

0.115

0.022

0.067

0.148

1.0

488

827

2007

0.143

0.015

0.116

0.173

1.0

7399

7887

2006

0.125

0.015

0.096

0.156

1.0

6272

7347

2005

0.115

0.013

0.090

0.140

1.0

6435

6909

2004

0.111

0.015

0.083

0.141

1.0

4335

4925

2003

0.078

0.009

0.064

0.100

1.0

4072

2216

2002

0.109

0.016

0.077

0.141

1.0

5744

4414

b2

2018

0.010

0.003

0.004

0.016

1.0

10148

8900

2017

0.008

0.003

0.003

0.013

1.0

8680

9355

2016

0.011

0.003

0.005

0.016

1.0

10571

10209

2015

0.012

0.004

0.004

0.020

1.0

4368

7387

2014

0.016

0.003

0.009

0.022

1.0

5780

5649

2013

0.010

0.003

0.004

0.016

1.0

10356

9483

2012

0.014

0.003

0.008

0.020

1.0

11364

9038

2011

0.016

0.003

0.010

0.022

1.0

9840

10296

2010

0.016

0.003

0.009

0.022

1.0

7157

7083

2009

0.012

0.004

0.003

0.020

1.0

6197

7584

2008

0.014

0.005

0.000

0.021

1.0

530

834

2007

0.009

0.003

0.003

0.014

1.0

12906

9627

2006

0.020

0.004

0.012

0.028

1.0

9304

8755

2005

0.014

0.005

0.005

0.023

1.0

7717

7714

2004

0.022

0.006

0.011

0.033

1.0

5540

5349

2003

0.012

0.007

-0.002

0.027

1.0

4575

3678

2002

0.013

0.005

0.004

0.022

1.0

8616

6197

b3

2018

0.073

0.019

0.036

0.110

1.0

10717

7884

2017

0.071

0.019

0.034

0.109

1.0

9693

7989

2016

0.074

0.019

0.037

0.110

1.0

10788

8113

2015

0.065

0.020

0.026

0.104

1.0

8947

8345

2014

0.049

0.020

0.010

0.088

1.0

9325

8256

2013

0.077

0.020

0.038

0.116

1.0

10698

8591

2012

0.063

0.020

0.024

0.102

1.0

10140

8450

2011

0.065

0.020

0.026

0.105

1.0

9910

8533

2010

0.053

0.024

0.007

0.100

1.0

10206

8185

2009

0.042

0.024

-0.006

0.089

1.0

9027

8236

2008

0.028

0.026

-0.022

0.079

1.0

2244

3756

2007

0.039

0.025

-0.009

0.088

1.0

10045

8806

2006

0.054

0.024

0.007

0.101

1.0

10492

8591

2005

0.073

0.024

0.026

0.121

1.0

11261

8175

2004

0.046

0.025

-0.004

0.095

1.0

9463

7895

2003

0.004

0.025

-0.045

0.053

1.0

10237

8979

2002

0.060

0.025

0.011

0.109

1.0

10752

8542

b4

2018

0.132

0.009

0.115

0.149

1.0

11959

8746

2017

0.128

0.009

0.110

0.145

1.0

11301

8661

2016

0.110

0.009

0.093

0.127

1.0

12113

8623

2015

0.097

0.009

0.080

0.115

1.0

9775

8103

2014

0.076

0.009

0.058

0.094

1.0

10253

8101

2013

0.074

0.009

0.056

0.092

1.0

11165

8373

2012

0.071

0.009

0.053

0.089

1.0

12530

9053

2011

0.073

0.009

0.055

0.091

1.0

11845

8756

2010

0.045

0.010

0.025

0.065

1.0

12191

8578

2009

0.071

0.011

0.049

0.092

1.0

9237

8611

2008

0.066

0.011

0.044

0.088

1.0

3845

7109

2007

0.075

0.011

0.054

0.096

1.0

10838

9015

2006

0.074

0.011

0.053

0.095

1.0

12173

9130

2005

0.080

0.011

0.059

0.101

1.0

11939

8713

2004

0.082

0.011

0.061

0.104

1.0

10665

8649

2003

0.054

0.011

0.033

0.074

1.0

10284

8558

2002

0.060

0.011

0.039

0.081

1.0

10756

8857

b5

2018

0.016

0.008

-0.001

0.032

1.0

11663

9098

2017

0.030

0.008

0.014

0.046

1.0

11607

8329

2016

0.026

0.008

0.010

0.043

1.0

11532

8579

2015

0.017

0.008

0.001

0.034

1.0

9434

7923

2014

0.033

0.008

0.016

0.049

1.0

9484

8329

2013

0.041

0.008

0.025

0.058

1.0

11908

8558

2012

0.030

0.008

0.014

0.046

1.0

10924

7667

2011

0.043

0.008

0.027

0.060

1.0

11002

8876

2010

0.025

0.010

0.007

0.044

1.0

12110

7915

2009

0.031

0.010

0.013

0.051

1.0

9160

8286

2008

0.027

0.010

0.008

0.046

1.0

7082

8188

2007

0.017

0.010

-0.002

0.036

1.0

10199

8608

2006

0.014

0.009

-0.004

0.032

1.0

12041

8631

2005

0.022

0.009

0.003

0.040

1.0

12494

9177

2004

0.021

0.009

0.002

0.039

1.0

10814

8859

2003

0.013

0.009

-0.005

0.032

1.0

10302

7902

2002

0.002

0.009

-0.017

0.020

1.0

11163

9103

b6

2018

0.162

0.016

0.130

0.193

1.0

9865

7944

2017

0.159

0.016

0.127

0.190

1.0

11197

7971

2016

0.165

0.016

0.133

0.197

1.0

10888

8354

2015

0.160

0.017

0.127

0.192

1.0

9202

7339

2014

0.130

0.017

0.098

0.163

1.0

10832

7900

2013

0.161

0.017

0.128

0.194

1.0

11006

8196

2012

0.168

0.016

0.136

0.201

1.0

11477

8679

2011

0.136

0.017

0.104

0.170

1.0

9964

8329

2010

0.180

0.019

0.142

0.218

1.0

10765

8249

2009

0.172

0.020

0.134

0.210

1.0

9957

8526

2008

0.145

0.020

0.106

0.185

1.0

8505

7925

2007

0.151

0.020

0.112

0.189

1.0

10416

9283

2006

0.136

0.019

0.099

0.173

1.0

11964

9168

2005

0.138

0.020

0.100

0.177

1.0

11581

8240

2004

0.160

0.020

0.122

0.199

1.0

10611

8103

2003

0.139

0.019

0.100

0.177

1.0

10127

8282

2002

0.147

0.019

0.109

0.185

1.0

9774

8327

sigma

2018

0.974

0.006

0.963

0.986

1.0

14363

7948

2017

0.976

0.006

0.965

0.987

1.0

13600

8942

2016

0.979

0.006

0.968

0.990

1.0

13047

8290

2015

0.979

0.006

0.968

0.991

1.0

10722

7072

2014

0.983

0.006

0.971

0.995

1.0

13804

7918

2013

0.982

0.006

0.971

0.994

1.0

13098

8423

2012

0.980

0.006

0.968

0.991

1.0

13793

8555

2011

0.980

0.006

0.968

0.992

1.0

13602

8017

2010

0.983

0.007

0.970

0.997

1.0

14103

7706

2009

0.981

0.007

0.968

0.995

1.0

12494

8176

2008

0.982

0.007

0.969

0.996

1.0

9984

8065

2007

0.982

0.007

0.969

0.996

1.0

14007

9162

2006

0.981

0.007

0.968

0.995

1.0

13423

8497

2005

0.981

0.007

0.968

0.995

1.0

15259

8598

2004

0.980

0.007

0.967

0.994

1.0

13331

8391

2003

0.985

0.007

0.971

0.998

1.0

10878

8060

2002

0.988

0.007

0.974

1.001

1.0

12558

8578


Table S2. Population-level linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter

Year

Estimate

Est.Error

l-95% CI

u-95% CI

Rhat

Bulk_ESS

Tail_ESS

Intercept

2018

-0.316

0.019

-0.353

-0.277

1.0

14006

10228

2017

-0.291

0.019

-0.329

-0.253

1.0

13073

10321

2016

-0.306

0.019

-0.344

-0.268

1.0

14068

10370

2015

-0.313

0.020

-0.353

-0.274

1.0

13763

10488

2014

-0.297

0.020

-0.335

-0.258

1.0

14018

10053

2013

-0.312

0.020

-0.351

-0.272

1.0

15651

10085

2012

-0.334

0.020

-0.374

-0.294

1.0

15044

9419

2011

-0.329

0.020

-0.368

-0.288

1.0

15264

10032

2010

-0.293

0.023

-0.338

-0.250

1.0

15413

10151

2009

-0.322

0.023

-0.368

-0.276

1.0

15612

10143

2008

-0.286

0.023

-0.332

-0.242

1.0

14927

10486

2007

-0.234

0.022

-0.278

-0.192

1.0

14104

10340

2006

-0.300

0.023

-0.344

-0.255

1.0

14512

9458

2005

-0.304

0.023

-0.350

-0.258

1.0

18269

9269

2004

-0.337

0.023

-0.383

-0.291

1.0

16123

9961

2003

-0.300

0.023

-0.345

-0.255

1.0

14964

10083

2002

-0.237

0.022

-0.280

-0.193

1.0

15569

9592

dollars

2018

0.033

0.002

0.029

0.037

1.0

19127

9998

2017

0.027

0.002

0.024

0.031

1.0

18387

10060

2016

0.030

0.002

0.026

0.034

1.0

19864

10204

2015

0.034

0.002

0.029

0.038

1.0

20147

10087

2014

0.031

0.002

0.027

0.035

1.0

20813

9558

2013

0.029

0.002

0.025

0.033

1.0

20564

9776

2012

0.035

0.002

0.031

0.040

1.0

19263

9816

2011

0.035

0.002

0.030

0.039

1.0

18440

9290

2010

0.030

0.002

0.025

0.034

1.0

19683

10210

2009

0.034

0.003

0.029

0.039

1.0

19411

10133

2008

0.032

0.002

0.027

0.037

1.0

19275

10239

2007

0.025

0.002

0.021

0.030

1.0

20606

9870

2006

0.040

0.003

0.034

0.045

1.0

20396

10117

2005

0.040

0.003

0.034

0.046

1.0

22024

9664

2004

0.048

0.003

0.041

0.054

1.0

19019

9389

2003

0.046

0.003

0.039

0.052

1.0

17897

9692

2002

0.033

0.003

0.027

0.039

1.0

19647

9792

grad

2018

0.103

0.019

0.066

0.140

1.0

11657

8807

2017

0.108

0.019

0.071

0.145

1.0

10077

8584

2016

0.098

0.019

0.061

0.136

1.0

9644

8660

2015

0.086

0.020

0.048

0.124

1.0

11031

8890

2014

0.068

0.020

0.029

0.105

1.0

11203

8900

2013

0.097

0.020

0.058

0.136

1.0

12095

8973

2012

0.078

0.020

0.039

0.118

1.0

10996

9294

2011

0.079

0.020

0.039

0.119

1.0

12104

8737

2010

0.064

0.023

0.018

0.110

1.0

12782

8831

2009

0.064

0.024

0.017

0.111

1.0

12111

8978

2008

0.054

0.025

0.006

0.103

1.0

12808

8695

2007

0.067

0.024

0.020

0.114

1.0

10230

8570

2006

0.071

0.024

0.024

0.118

1.0

11556

9107

2005

0.096

0.025

0.047

0.145

1.0

15613

9054

2004

0.060

0.025

0.011

0.108

1.0

10952

9517

2003

0.027

0.025

-0.022

0.076

1.0

11297

9208

2002

0.069

0.025

0.021

0.118

1.0

12773

8684

age

2018

0.115

0.009

0.098

0.132

1.0

11227

9635

2017

0.106

0.009

0.090

0.123

1.0

11325

8997

2016

0.091

0.009

0.075

0.108

1.0

12091

8374

2015

0.082

0.009

0.064

0.099

1.0

10567

8693

2014

0.058

0.009

0.040

0.076

1.0

10989

8467

2013

0.056

0.009

0.038

0.074

1.0

12008

9546

2012

0.049

0.009

0.032

0.067

1.0

11331

9625

2011

0.050

0.009

0.032

0.068

1.0

13077

9763

2010

0.027

0.010

0.006

0.047

1.0

10760

8808

2009

0.047

0.011

0.026

0.068

1.0

10922

8987

2008

0.041

0.011

0.021

0.062

1.0

12210

9086

2007

0.048

0.011

0.028

0.068

1.0

12197

10017

2006

0.054

0.010

0.033

0.074

1.0

11566

9238

2005

0.059

0.011

0.038

0.080

1.0

14325

9516

2004

0.066

0.011

0.045

0.087

1.0

11391

9310

2003

0.043

0.011

0.022

0.064

1.0

12258

9349

2002

0.045

0.011

0.024

0.066

1.0

11233

8473

age_sq

2018

-0.001

0.008

-0.017

0.015

1.0

11109

8882

2017

0.010

0.008

-0.006

0.026

1.0

10722

8526

2016

0.010

0.008

-0.006

0.026

1.0

10926

8888

2015

0.002

0.008

-0.014

0.018

1.0

10702

8938

2014

0.018

0.008

0.002

0.034

1.0

10944

8950

2013

0.026

0.008

0.009

0.042

1.0

11501

9677

2012

0.014

0.008

-0.003

0.030

1.0

11191

8770

2011

0.025

0.008

0.009

0.041

1.0

12111

9170

2010

0.011

0.009

-0.007

0.029

1.0

11752

9509

2009

0.016

0.009

-0.003

0.034

1.0

11600

9348

2008

0.012

0.010

-0.008

0.030

1.0

11560

9064

2007

-0.002

0.010

-0.021

0.017

1.0

10630

8049

2006

-0.000

0.009

-0.018

0.018

1.0

11386

8843

2005

0.008

0.009

-0.010

0.026

1.0

14429

8527

2004

0.009

0.009

-0.009

0.028

1.0

11468

9210

2003

0.007

0.009

-0.011

0.025

1.0

11813

8675

2002

-0.009

0.009

-0.026

0.010

1.0

11330

9643

male

2018

0.171

0.016

0.138

0.203

1.0

12081

8698

2017

0.170

0.016

0.138

0.202

1.0

11135

7889

2016

0.174

0.016

0.142

0.207

1.0

11233

8879

2015

0.167

0.017

0.134

0.200

1.0

11220

8949

2014

0.138

0.017

0.104

0.170

1.0

10685

9161

2013

0.169

0.017

0.136

0.202

1.0

11261

8336

2012

0.177

0.017

0.143

0.209

1.0

9968

8683

2011

0.148

0.017

0.115

0.181

1.0

10976

8591

2010

0.188

0.019

0.151

0.225

1.0

13088

9238

2009

0.183

0.020

0.145

0.221

1.0

11448

8924

2008

0.155

0.020

0.116

0.194

1.0

12673

9016

2007

0.164

0.020

0.125

0.202

1.0

10811

8779

2006

0.146

0.019

0.108

0.184

1.0

12257

8727

2005

0.145

0.019

0.108

0.183

1.0

16872

9600

2004

0.168

0.019

0.130

0.206

1.0

12085

9283

2003

0.144

0.019

0.107

0.182

1.0

13152

9230

2002

0.153

0.019

0.116

0.191

1.0

13412

9750

sigma

2018

0.979

0.006

0.968

0.991

1.0

14442

9369

2017

0.982

0.006

0.971

0.993

1.0

13014

8298

2016

0.983

0.006

0.972

0.995

1.0

14319

8855

2015

0.984

0.006

0.972

0.995

1.0

15810

8843

2014

0.987

0.006

0.975

0.999

1.0

12493

8776

2013

0.986

0.006

0.974

0.998

1.0

12853

9242

2012

0.984

0.006

0.972

0.996

1.0

14535

9003

2011

0.985

0.006

0.974

0.997

1.0

14082

9203

2010

0.987

0.007

0.974

1.001

1.0

15396

8926

2009

0.985

0.007

0.972

0.999

1.0

15378

9419

2008

0.987

0.007

0.973

1.001

1.0

14429

8890

2007

0.989

0.007

0.976

1.003

1.0

13405

9885

2006

0.985

0.007

0.972

0.998

1.0

13470

9216

2005

0.986

0.007

0.972

1.000

1.0

18106

9150

2004

0.983

0.007

0.970

0.997

1.0

13797

8844

2003

0.987

0.007

0.974

1.000

1.0

15662

8452

2002

0.990

0.007

0.977

1.004

1.0

15600

9265


Table S3. Population-level piecewise parameter estimates for satisfaction

Parameter

Year

Estimate

Est.Error

l-95% CI

u-95% CI

Rhat

Bulk_ESS

Tail_ESS

alpha

2018

-3.009

0.087

-3.159

-2.825

1.0

5796

6401

2017

-2.591

0.128

-2.835

-2.371

1.0

3522

7302

2016

-2.848

0.120

-3.052

-2.557

1.0

2882

2724

2015

-2.543

0.148

-3.034

-2.355

1.0

2345

752

2014

-2.419

0.073

-2.587

-2.287

1.0

6196

3543

2013

-2.809

0.077

-2.946

-2.647

1.0

5706

6100

2012

-2.744

0.060

-2.854

-2.617

1.0

6608

5786

2011

-3.052

0.110

-3.245

-2.839

1.0

3674

8091

2010

-2.097

0.165

-2.471

-1.816

1.0

5211

4410

2009

-2.933

0.206

-3.259

-2.539

1.0

2544

6140

2008

-2.291

0.217

-2.743

-1.826

1.0

3370

2947

2007

-2.762

0.172

-3.062

-2.325

1.0

3736

2942

2006

0.150

2.619

-3.305

5.689

1.5

7

122

2005

-2.225

0.324

-2.795

-1.513

1.0

2470

2825

2004

-3.107

0.378

-3.564

-2.223

1.0

1913

3248

2003

-2.646

0.190

-2.983

-2.256

1.0

4233

5396

2002

-3.038

0.295

-3.530

-2.380

1.0

3088

3259

b0

2018

-0.068

0.025

-0.114

-0.018

1.0

6309

7242

2017

0.056

0.038

-0.015

0.128

1.0

3505

6850

2016

-0.036

0.032

-0.092

0.038

1.0

2962

2360

2015

0.031

0.042

-0.087

0.096

1.0

2239

795

2014

0.094

0.028

0.035

0.148

1.0

5861

4248

2013

-0.014

0.024

-0.059

0.035

1.0

6436

6114

2012

-0.016

0.022

-0.059

0.030

1.0

6943

6921

2011

-0.058

0.028

-0.109

-0.002

1.0

3975

6762

2010

0.129

0.056

0.015

0.237

1.0

5496

5272

2009

-0.031

0.043

-0.101

0.059

1.0

2400

6255

2008

0.122

0.068

0.001

0.271

1.0

3384

2988

2007

0.074

0.041

0.007

0.177

1.0

3712

3056

2006

1.126

0.944

-0.073

2.599

1.5

7

91

2005

0.217

0.125

0.040

0.521

1.0

2533

2776

2004

0.033

0.084

-0.065

0.249

1.0

1917

3027

2003

0.134

0.057

0.039

0.258

1.0

4440

5418

2002

0.027

0.060

-0.067

0.170

1.0

3120

3468

b1

2018

0.115

0.015

0.087

0.145

1.0

6905

8168

2017

0.077

0.010

0.061

0.100

1.0

4224

6443

2016

0.098

0.014

0.070

0.128

1.0

3495

3178

2015

0.070

0.012

0.056

0.106

1.0

2591

811

2014

0.064

0.005

0.055

0.075

1.0

8802

6392

2013

0.088

0.009

0.070

0.107

1.0

7204

7706

2012

0.087

0.008

0.072

0.102

1.0

8564

7777

2011

0.124

0.018

0.092

0.162

1.0

4164

7290

2010

0.043

0.005

0.034

0.054

1.0

7594

6355

2009

0.089

0.020

0.058

0.128

1.0

2771

7262

2008

0.050

0.007

0.038

0.067

1.0

4919

4199

2007

0.077

0.014

0.051

0.105

1.0

4578

4413

2006

0.033

0.023

0.021

0.074

1.3

9

101

2005

0.050

0.007

0.038

0.065

1.0

4076

4885

2004

0.099

0.034

0.049

0.167

1.0

2046

4384

2003

0.067

0.010

0.050

0.088

1.0

5513

6127

2002

0.086

0.026

0.049

0.149

1.0

3470

5376

b2

2018

0.018

0.003

0.013

0.023

1.0

11457

9423

2017

0.009

0.003

0.003

0.015

1.0

6091

7618

2016

0.014

0.003

0.007

0.019

1.0

5105

4907

2015

0.012

0.004

0.005

0.021

1.0

2956

1315

2014

0.010

0.003

0.004

0.016

1.0

9955

7475

2013

0.015

0.003

0.009

0.020

1.0

10976

8677

2012

0.012

0.003

0.006

0.018

1.0

13160

9581

2011

0.017

0.003

0.011

0.022

1.0

7133

8981

2010

0.002

0.005

-0.008

0.012

1.0

7857

7330

2009

0.014

0.004

0.006

0.021

1.0

4111

7159

2008

0.007

0.005

-0.003

0.016

1.0

5080

4397

2007

0.008

0.003

0.001

0.014

1.0

5986

6240

2006

0.005

2.257

-5.187

5.088

1.4

1698

406

2005

0.009

0.009

-0.009

0.023

1.0

3654

3400

2004

0.022

0.007

0.005

0.032

1.0

2627

3807

2003

0.012

0.007

-0.003

0.024

1.0

6270

6729

2002

0.018

0.006

0.005

0.028

1.0

4458

4674

b3

2018

0.009

0.018

-0.027

0.045

1.0

10675

8368

2017

-0.012

0.019

-0.049

0.025

1.0

7633

7876

2016

0.008

0.018

-0.028

0.044

1.0

8625

7399

2015

-0.009

0.019

-0.046

0.029

1.0

8874

8246

2014

-0.017

0.019

-0.054

0.019

1.0

10781

8711

2013

-0.037

0.019

-0.073

0.000

1.0

10542

8903

2012

-0.009

0.019

-0.047

0.029

1.0

9819

8157

2011

-0.011

0.019

-0.049

0.026

1.0

10814

8505

2010

-0.021

0.023

-0.065

0.024

1.0

9141

8602

2009

-0.013

0.023

-0.057

0.032

1.0

7964

8206

2008

-0.043

0.023

-0.089

0.003

1.0

10047

8705

2007

-0.078

0.024

-0.125

-0.031

1.0

8492

8387

2006

-0.036

0.024

-0.083

0.011

1.0

145

5732

2005

-0.083

0.024

-0.130

-0.036

1.0

8653

7735

2004

-0.082

0.024

-0.130

-0.033

1.0

6691

7545

2003

-0.109

0.024

-0.158

-0.062

1.0

10328

8628

2002

-0.085

0.025

-0.132

-0.037

1.0

9829

7970

b4

2018

0.070

0.008

0.053

0.086

1.0

11685

8285

2017

0.061

0.008

0.044

0.077

1.0

9594

8649

2016

0.070

0.008

0.053

0.086

1.0

9173

9239

2015

0.055

0.008

0.038

0.071

1.0

10474

8393

2014

0.066

0.008

0.050

0.083

1.0

12341

8631

2013

0.077

0.008

0.060

0.094

1.0

9937

8223

2012

0.065

0.008

0.048

0.081

1.0

10424

8336

2011

0.060

0.009

0.043

0.077

1.0

10762

8558

2010

0.051

0.010

0.033

0.070

1.0

10826

7560

2009

0.086

0.010

0.067

0.106

1.0

10700

8548

2008

0.087

0.010

0.068

0.106

1.0

10667

9292

2007

0.106

0.010

0.087

0.126

1.0

9486

7714

2006

0.109

0.010

0.090

0.130

1.0

100

5090

2005

0.121

0.010

0.102

0.141

1.0

9190

8563

2004

0.128

0.010

0.108

0.148

1.0

9179

8503

2003

0.123

0.010

0.103

0.143

1.0

10191

8337

2002

0.129

0.010

0.109

0.149

1.0

10190

8747

b5

2018

0.134

0.008

0.119

0.150

1.0

11021

8946

2017

0.118

0.008

0.103

0.133

1.0

8717

8302

2016

0.130

0.008

0.114

0.145

1.0

9345

8519

2015

0.131

0.008

0.116

0.146

1.0

11314

8777

2014

0.129

0.008

0.115

0.144

1.0

12129

8086

2013

0.130

0.008

0.115

0.145

1.0

11579

8894

2012

0.141

0.008

0.126

0.156

1.0

10954

8394

2011

0.135

0.008

0.120

0.150

1.0

9739

8752

2010

0.123

0.009

0.107

0.140

1.0

10126

8895

2009

0.111

0.009

0.094

0.128

1.0

9536

8098

2008

0.109

0.009

0.092

0.126

1.0

10640

8690

2007

0.081

0.009

0.064

0.099

1.0

9577

8634

2006

0.084

0.009

0.067

0.101

1.0

216

6141

2005

0.092

0.009

0.076

0.110

1.0

9211

8415

2004

0.081

0.009

0.064

0.098

1.0

8662

7884

2003

0.091

0.009

0.075

0.108

1.0

10073

8832

2002

0.081

0.008

0.065

0.098

1.0

10453

9043

b6

2018

-0.063

0.016

-0.094

-0.032

1.0

10751

8041

2017

-0.059

0.016

-0.089

-0.027

1.0

8916

8293

2016

-0.035

0.016

-0.066

-0.004

1.0

8853

8230

2015

-0.039

0.016

-0.070

-0.008

1.0

9617

7984

2014

-0.099

0.016

-0.129

-0.067

1.0

11675

8109

2013

-0.061

0.016

-0.093

-0.030

1.0

10075

8441

2012

-0.045

0.016

-0.077

-0.013

1.0

9777

8853

2011

-0.069

0.016

-0.100

-0.038

1.0

11111

8662

2010

-0.044

0.018

-0.079

-0.009

1.0

9624

7946

2009

-0.054

0.018

-0.089

-0.018

1.0

9452

8027

2008

-0.061

0.019

-0.098

-0.025

1.0

10248

7732

2007

-0.071

0.019

-0.108

-0.034

1.0

9126

8451

2006

-0.066

0.018

-0.103

-0.030

1.0

6185

6126

2005

-0.094

0.019

-0.130

-0.057

1.0

9648

8018

2004

-0.106

0.019

-0.142

-0.070

1.0

8243

7566

2003

-0.104

0.018

-0.140

-0.068

1.0

10116

7952

2002

-0.061

0.018

-0.097

-0.025

1.0

10694

7985

sigma

2018

0.981

0.005

0.970

0.991

1.0

14252

8298

2017

0.984

0.006

0.973

0.995

1.0

10967

8445

2016

0.982

0.006

0.971

0.993

1.0

13353

9321

2015

0.983

0.006

0.972

0.993

1.0

13255

8527

2014

0.980

0.005

0.970

0.991

1.0

14400

8809

2013

0.981

0.006

0.970

0.992

1.0

13524

8950

2012

0.981

0.006

0.970

0.992

1.0

13467

8290

2011

0.981

0.006

0.971

0.992

1.0

13995

8536

2010

0.986

0.006

0.973

0.998

1.0

10911

8138

2009

0.984

0.006

0.972

0.997

1.0

12041

7619

2008

0.984

0.007

0.971

0.997

1.0

12117

8265

2007

0.985

0.007

0.973

0.998

1.0

11081

8287

2006

0.985

0.006

0.972

0.998

1.0

8021

7397

2005

0.981

0.006

0.968

0.994

1.0

10740

8300

2004

0.981

0.007

0.968

0.994

1.0

10144

8388

2003

0.980

0.006

0.967

0.993

1.0

12774

8366

2002

0.982

0.006

0.970

0.995

1.0

11710

8077


Table S4. Population-level linear parameter estimates for happiness

Parameter

Year

Estimate

Est.Error

l-95% CI

u-95% CI

Rhat

Bulk_ESS

Tail_ESS

Intercept

2018

-0.316

0.019

-0.353

-0.277

1.0

14006

10228

2017

-0.291

0.019

-0.329

-0.253

1.0

13073

10321

2016

-0.306

0.019

-0.344

-0.268

1.0

14068

10370

2015

-0.313

0.020

-0.353

-0.274

1.0

13763

10488

2014

-0.297

0.020

-0.335

-0.258

1.0

14018

10053

2013

-0.312

0.020

-0.351

-0.272

1.0

15651

10085

2012

-0.334

0.020

-0.374

-0.294

1.0

15044

9419

2011

-0.329

0.020

-0.368

-0.288

1.0

15264

10032

2010

-0.293

0.023

-0.338

-0.250

1.0

15413

10151

2009

-0.322

0.023

-0.368

-0.276

1.0

15612

10143

2008

-0.286

0.023

-0.332

-0.242

1.0

14927

10486

2007

-0.234

0.022

-0.278

-0.192

1.0

14104

10340

2006

-0.300

0.023

-0.344

-0.255

1.0

14512

9458

2005

-0.304

0.023

-0.350

-0.258

1.0

18269

9269

2004

-0.337

0.023

-0.383

-0.291

1.0

16123

9961

2003

-0.300

0.023

-0.345

-0.255

1.0

14964

10083

2002

-0.237

0.022

-0.280

-0.193

1.0

15569

9592

dollars

2018

0.033

0.002

0.029

0.037

1.0

19127

9998

2017

0.027

0.002

0.024

0.031

1.0

18387

10060

2016

0.030

0.002

0.026

0.034

1.0

19864

10204

2015

0.034

0.002

0.029

0.038

1.0

20147

10087

2014

0.031

0.002

0.027

0.035

1.0

20813

9558

2013

0.029

0.002

0.025

0.033

1.0

20564

9776

2012

0.035

0.002

0.031

0.040

1.0

19263

9816

2011

0.035

0.002

0.030

0.039

1.0

18440

9290

2010

0.030

0.002

0.025

0.034

1.0

19683

10210

2009

0.034

0.003

0.029

0.039

1.0

19411

10133

2008

0.032

0.002

0.027

0.037

1.0

19275

10239

2007

0.025

0.002

0.021

0.030

1.0

20606

9870

2006

0.040

0.003

0.034

0.045

1.0

20396

10117

2005

0.040

0.003

0.034

0.046

1.0

22024

9664

2004

0.048

0.003

0.041

0.054

1.0

19019

9389

2003

0.046

0.003

0.039

0.052

1.0

17897

9692

2002

0.033

0.003

0.027

0.039

1.0

19647

9792

grad

2018

0.103

0.019

0.066

0.140

1.0

11657

8807

2017

0.108

0.019

0.071

0.145

1.0

10077

8584

2016

0.098

0.019

0.061

0.136

1.0

9644

8660

2015

0.086

0.020

0.048

0.124

1.0

11031

8890

2014

0.068

0.020

0.029

0.105

1.0

11203

8900

2013

0.097

0.020

0.058

0.136

1.0

12095

8973

2012

0.078

0.020

0.039

0.118

1.0

10996

9294

2011

0.079

0.020

0.039

0.119

1.0

12104

8737

2010

0.064

0.023

0.018

0.110

1.0

12782

8831

2009

0.064

0.024

0.017

0.111

1.0

12111

8978

2008

0.054

0.025

0.006

0.103

1.0

12808

8695

2007

0.067

0.024

0.020

0.114

1.0

10230

8570

2006

0.071

0.024

0.024

0.118

1.0

11556

9107

2005

0.096

0.025

0.047

0.145

1.0

15613

9054

2004

0.060

0.025

0.011

0.108

1.0

10952

9517

2003

0.027

0.025

-0.022

0.076

1.0

11297

9208

2002

0.069

0.025

0.021

0.118

1.0

12773

8684

age

2018

0.115

0.009

0.098

0.132

1.0

11227

9635

2017

0.106

0.009

0.090

0.123

1.0

11325

8997

2016

0.091

0.009

0.075

0.108

1.0

12091

8374

2015

0.082

0.009

0.064

0.099

1.0

10567

8693

2014

0.058

0.009

0.040

0.076

1.0

10989

8467

2013

0.056

0.009

0.038

0.074

1.0

12008

9546

2012

0.049

0.009

0.032

0.067

1.0

11331

9625

2011

0.050

0.009

0.032

0.068

1.0

13077

9763

2010

0.027

0.010

0.006

0.047

1.0

10760

8808

2009

0.047

0.011

0.026

0.068

1.0

10922

8987

2008

0.041

0.011

0.021

0.062

1.0

12210

9086

2007

0.048

0.011

0.028

0.068

1.0

12197

10017

2006

0.054

0.010

0.033

0.074

1.0

11566

9238

2005

0.059

0.011

0.038

0.080

1.0

14325

9516

2004

0.066

0.011

0.045

0.087

1.0

11391

9310

2003

0.043

0.011

0.022

0.064

1.0

12258

9349

2002

0.045

0.011

0.024

0.066

1.0

11233

8473

age_sq

2018

-0.001

0.008

-0.017

0.015

1.0

11109

8882

2017

0.010

0.008

-0.006

0.026

1.0

10722

8526

2016

0.010

0.008

-0.006

0.026

1.0

10926

8888

2015

0.002

0.008

-0.014

0.018

1.0

10702

8938

2014

0.018

0.008

0.002

0.034

1.0

10944

8950

2013

0.026

0.008

0.009

0.042

1.0

11501

9677

2012

0.014

0.008

-0.003

0.030

1.0

11191

8770

2011

0.025

0.008

0.009

0.041

1.0

12111

9170

2010

0.011

0.009

-0.007

0.029

1.0

11752

9509

2009

0.016

0.009

-0.003

0.034

1.0

11600

9348

2008

0.012

0.010

-0.008

0.030

1.0

11560

9064

2007

-0.002

0.010

-0.021

0.017

1.0

10630

8049

2006

-0.000

0.009

-0.018

0.018

1.0

11386

8843

2005

0.008

0.009

-0.010

0.026

1.0

14429

8527

2004

0.009

0.009

-0.009

0.028

1.0

11468

9210

2003

0.007

0.009

-0.011

0.025

1.0

11813

8675

2002

-0.009

0.009

-0.026

0.010

1.0

11330

9643

male

2018

0.171

0.016

0.138

0.203

1.0

12081

8698

2017

0.170

0.016

0.138

0.202

1.0

11135

7889

2016

0.174

0.016

0.142

0.207

1.0

11233

8879

2015

0.167

0.017

0.134

0.200

1.0

11220

8949

2014

0.138

0.017

0.104

0.170

1.0

10685

9161

2013

0.169

0.017

0.136

0.202

1.0

11261

8336

2012

0.177

0.017

0.143

0.209

1.0

9968

8683

2011

0.148

0.017

0.115

0.181

1.0

10976

8591

2010

0.188

0.019

0.151

0.225

1.0

13088

9238

2009

0.183

0.020

0.145

0.221

1.0

11448

8924

2008

0.155

0.020

0.116

0.194

1.0

12673

9016

2007

0.164

0.020

0.125

0.202

1.0

10811

8779

2006

0.146

0.019

0.108

0.184

1.0

12257

8727

2005

0.145

0.019

0.108

0.183

1.0

16872

9600

2004

0.168

0.019

0.130

0.206

1.0

12085

9283

2003

0.144

0.019

0.107

0.182

1.0

13152

9230

2002

0.153

0.019

0.116

0.191

1.0

13412

9750

sigma

2018

0.979

0.006

0.968

0.991

1.0

14442

9369

2017

0.982

0.006

0.971

0.993

1.0

13014

8298

2016

0.983

0.006

0.972

0.995

1.0

14319

8855

2015

0.984

0.006

0.972

0.995

1.0

15810

8843

2014

0.987

0.006

0.975

0.999

1.0

12493

8776

2013

0.986

0.006

0.974

0.998

1.0

12853

9242

2012

0.984

0.006

0.972

0.996

1.0

14535

9003

2011

0.985

0.006

0.974

0.997

1.0

14082

9203

2010

0.987

0.007

0.974

1.001

1.0

15396

8926

2009

0.985

0.007

0.972

0.999

1.0

15378

9419

2008

0.987

0.007

0.973

1.001

1.0

14429

8890

2007

0.989

0.007

0.976

1.003

1.0

13405

9885

2006

0.985

0.007

0.972

0.998

1.0

13470

9216

2005

0.986

0.007

0.972

1.000

1.0

18106

9150

2004

0.983

0.007

0.970

0.997

1.0

13797

8844

2003

0.987

0.007

0.974

1.000

1.0

15662

8452

2002

0.990

0.007

0.977

1.004

1.0

15600

9265



Figure S5. Posterior predictive distribution of marginal effect of wealth by year (95% CI)

(not run)



References

Jebb, A.T., Tay, L., Diener, E., Oishi, S., 2018. Happiness, income satiation and turning points around the world. Nature Human Behaviour 2, 33–38.

Kahneman, D., Deaton, A., 2010. High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 107, 16489–16493.